Control method of bus arrival time prediction model

A technology of time prediction and model control, applied in traffic control systems, traffic control systems of road vehicles, instruments, etc., can solve problems such as the difficulty of increasing the arrival time of buses, and the inability to obtain signal light timing information at intersections, etc.

Active Publication Date: 2011-06-01
SHANGHAI YAO WEI GROUP IND
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Problems solved by technology

Since the current bus intelligent dispatching system cannot be connected with the Urban Traffic Control System (UTCS) and cannot obtain the signal light timing information at the intersection, the parking delay at the signal light intersect

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  • Control method of bus arrival time prediction model
  • Control method of bus arrival time prediction model
  • Control method of bus arrival time prediction model

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Embodiment Construction

[0041] The present invention will be described in detail below in conjunction with the accompanying drawings and specific embodiments.

[0042] Positioning accuracy, signal lights, traffic flow, weather changes, passenger flow distribution, traffic accidents, etc. will all bring different degrees of random errors to the arrival time prediction results. Among these random factors, such as traffic flow, passenger flow concentration, etc., are highly similar in corresponding times in different weeks, and the influence of weather changes is also estimable to a certain extent. Since urban bus electronic stop signs are generally only set up at some important stations (not all stations), and the current APTS system cannot be connected with the urban traffic control system (UTCS), it is impossible to obtain signal light timing information at intersections , so the delay of the signal lights at the intersection becomes the main uncertainty factor affecting the prediction accuracy. It ...

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Abstract

The invention relates to a control method of a bus arrival time prediction model, comprising the following steps: (1) firstly establishing a historical database of the bus operating state; (2) training historical data by a BP (backpropagation) neural network method to derive the optimal mean travel time of a bus from a departure point to an electronic stop board; and (3) introducing dynamic operating information of the bus to modify the optimal mean travel time derived by the BP neural network method. Compared with the prior art, the invention not only can accurately predict the bus arrival time under a normal operating condition of the bus, but also can accurately predict the bus arrival time under complex operating conditions of traffic jam, traffic accidents, bad weather conditions, crossing of more traffic light intersections, operation in rush hours or slack hours and the like, and also can automatically update parameters in the prediction model according to the latest historical data of bus operation.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to a bus arrival time prediction model, in particular to a bus arrival time prediction model control method. Background technique [0002] 1. Analysis of the factors affecting the bus arrival time prediction information: [0003] 1) Positioning accuracy of the bus [0004] The positioning information of the bus is provided by the GPS vehicle system installed on the vehicle, which is mainly composed of data such as latitude and longitude, speed, direction, etc. Therefore, the positioning accuracy of GPS is one of the important factors affecting the arrival time of the bus. At present, under the condition of no occlusion, the average positioning accuracy of the GPS receiver is about 12 meters, and the provided vehicle system has the function of map matching and GPS blind zone compensation function, which can accurately reflect the real-time position of the vehicle. [0005] 2) Impact of road traffic on public transport vehicles ...

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Application Information

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IPC IPC(8): G08G1/127
Inventor 姚薇
Owner SHANGHAI YAO WEI GROUP IND
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