Prediction method and system for confidence interval of software cost

A prediction method and confidence interval technology, applied in the direction of program control devices, etc., can solve the problems of unfavorable analysis models and improved models, which cannot reflect the characteristics of measurement models, etc., and achieve the effect of convenient evaluation method, high experimental hit rate, and clear design

Inactive Publication Date: 2011-08-17
INST OF SOFTWARE - CHINESE ACAD OF SCI
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Problems solved by technology

In the existing measurement models, the method of predicting the confidence interval is based on the RE or MRE set, and a new model is established, which solves the problem of comparing the accuracy of the software measu...

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  • Prediction method and system for confidence interval of software cost
  • Prediction method and system for confidence interval of software cost
  • Prediction method and system for confidence interval of software cost

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Embodiment Construction

[0055] The following will describe in detail: algorithms and systems based on uncertainty interval prediction and model comparison. In addition, the present invention implements two histogram-based interval determination methods for comparison. The present invention uses a large number of samples to obtain multiple pairs of training sets and test sets, calculates the variance corresponding to MMRE and MRE, compares the sets of MMRE and var(MRE) based on a non-parametric comparison method, and obtains two model evaluation results.

[0056] Firstly, the definition in the present invention is explained: data matrix X, each row is a piece of data. Each line includes, driving factor, project scale and workload (cost), and the column in which each item is specified through the configuration item.

[0057] Configuration items are expressed in text files, each line is a configuration item, and the format is as follows:

[0058] Name: value_type

[0059] Among them, value_type is di...

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Abstract

The invention provides a prediction method and system for the confidence interval of software cost. The prediction method comprises the following steps of: acquiring process data and cost information of a known software project from a project management database; specifying which columns the respective process data and cost information are arranged to form a data matrix X through configuration items after data preprocessing on the basis that each row is the process data of each item of software, wherein the cost information forms a column vector Y; extracting data from an X-Y matrix, and inputting the data in a core modular module for training; training out parameters of a selected model according to input data of the X-Y matrix, and figuring out a measured value of the cost; and obtaining a final prediction interval by using the measured value of the cost and the known cost value according to a calculation method of the confidence interval. In the invention, the interval prediction method has a high hit rate of experiments, and plays an extremely important and dependable instruction role in the measurement of workload in practical application; when the prediction system is adopted, a new model, a new interval algorithm and a new model evaluation method are added for researchers; and therefore the prediction method and system are very convenient.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to a method and system for predicting software cost confidence intervals based on software cost measurement, and belongs to the technical field of computer software development. Background technique [0002] The measurement of software project cost is very important for any company or organization to make investment decisions and resource coordination. Software project feasibility analysis, cost planning and schedule planning, and risk management are all based on cost determination at each stage. Therefore, the cost measurement of software projects is an important issue in the research of software project management. [0003] The current research work on software cost measurement is mainly based on the CoCoMo1 and CoCoMoII models proposed by Boehm, the originator of software cost measurement: [0004] effort = a * SIZE b * ( ...

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Application Information

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IPC IPC(8): G06F9/44
Inventor 杨叶解浪杨达
Owner INST OF SOFTWARE - CHINESE ACAD OF SCI
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