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Real-time quantitative judgment method of hazard of trans-boundary sudden water environmental pollution accident

A real-time quantitative and judgment method technology, applied in special data processing applications, instruments, electrical digital data processing, etc., can solve problems such as insufficient risk assessment

Inactive Publication Date: 2011-10-19
HARBIN INST OF TECH
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  • Abstract
  • Description
  • Claims
  • Application Information

AI Technical Summary

Problems solved by technology

[0004] The purpose of the present invention is to solve the direct or indirect ecological risk and acute or long-term post-accident risk assessment for sudden pollution accidents in the existing methods for real-time quantitative determination of the hazards of cross-border sudden water pollution accidents Insufficient, and the problem that there is a relatively complete evaluation and grading system for accident hazards at the accident site and surrounding areas, the present invention provides a real-time quantitative judgment method for the hazards of cross-border sudden water pollution accidents

Method used

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  • Real-time quantitative judgment method of hazard of trans-boundary sudden water environmental pollution accident
  • Real-time quantitative judgment method of hazard of trans-boundary sudden water environmental pollution accident
  • Real-time quantitative judgment method of hazard of trans-boundary sudden water environmental pollution accident

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specific Embodiment approach 1

[0040] Embodiment 1: Combining figure 1 Describe the real-time quantitative determination method for the hazard of a transboundary sudden water environment pollution accident in this embodiment, which is realized through the following steps:

[0041] 1. Establish a set of factors for the evaluation object

[0042] Using the pressure-state-response (Pressure-State-Response, abbreviated as PSR) framework model, 5 main factors and 12 early warning indicators were obtained through screening, and an evaluation index system for transboundary sudden water pollution accidents was constructed. The corresponding early warning indicators are as follows:

[0043] The first factor is the source of environmental risk (pressure), which corresponds to the two early warning indicators of the characteristic pollutant concentration exceeding the standard multiple and the pollutant's own toxicity;

[0044] The second factor is security and economic risk (status), corresponding to the two early ...

specific Embodiment approach 2

[0070] Embodiment 2: The difference between this embodiment and Embodiment 1 is the combination of image 3 , indicating that the early warning process of transboundary sudden water pollution accidents is implemented through the following steps:

[0071] (1) Data selection: collect emergency monitoring data, and estimate the initial pollution concentration according to the prediction and simulation of the maximum leakage when the emergency monitoring data is missing or distorted;

[0072] (2) Real-time simulation of pollutant migration and transformation: Input parameters such as the physical and chemical properties of pollution, accident location, occurrence time, and simulation interval time, and use pollutant migration and transformation model simulation to obtain information on the spatiotemporal distribution of pollutants in transboundary areas.

[0073] (3) Calculation of early warning index model: input various parameters of early warning information and information on ...

specific Embodiment approach 3

[0076] Embodiment 3. The difference between this embodiment and Embodiment 1 or 2 is that in step 2, the 1-9 scale method in the AHP is used to establish a hierarchical structure model, and the comparison results between the factors are determined as follows:

[0077]

[0078] The random consistency index of the comparison matrix is ​​CR=0.0183<0.1, so the consistency of the comparison matrix is ​​acceptable, and the weight coefficient of each early warning index in the factor set of the evaluation object is obtained. Other steps and parameters are the same as in the first or second embodiment.

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Abstract

The invention provides a real-time quantitative judgment method of the hazard of a trans-boundary sudden water environmental pollution accident, which relates to a real-time quantitative judgment method of the hazard of a sudden water environmental pollution accident. The invention solves the problems of insufficient evaluation on direct or indirect ecological risk caused by a sudden pollution accident and on urgent or long-term risk after an accident, and a more complete evaluation rating system for accident hazard at and surrounding a site with an accident. The method comprises the steps of: firstly, building a factor set of evaluated objects by adopting a PSR (Pressure-Status-Response) model, and determining the weighting coefficient of an early-warning index by adopting an analytic hierarchy process; secondly, building an evaluation rating set, and further building a membership function of the evaluation rating set by adopting a step-down trapezoid distribution method; and finally, carrying out comprehensive judgment on the early-warning level of the trans-boundary pollution accident by adopting a maximal subordinate degree principle. The judgment method disclosed by the invention has the advantages of simpleness of creation and high operation feasible degree, and provides information and technical supports for early warning and emergency decision direction for trans-boundary sudden water environmental pollution accidents.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to a real-time quantitative determination method for the hazard of a sudden water environment pollution accident, in particular to a real-time quantitative determination method for the hazard of a transboundary sudden water environment pollution accident based on an AHP-fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method. Background technique [0002] In the 21st century, major environmental pollution incidents broke out frequently in my country. Among the more than 20 typical sudden major environmental accidents that occurred, water pollution accidents accounted for more than 85%, and about half of them crossed prefecture-level administrative regions, and even some. Events that cross borders take place. Major water pollution accidents not only threaten the personal safety, drinking water safety and ecological safety of the accident site, but also affect the downstream administrative areas of the river basin because the pollution zone cannot be ...

Claims

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Application Information

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IPC IPC(8): G06F19/00
Inventor 尤宏李二平
Owner HARBIN INST OF TECH
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