Large-fluctuation power grid load short-term forecasting method

Abstract

The invention discloses a large-fluctuation power grid load short-term forecasting method. The method comprises the following steps of: first, screening historical data samples by a form-factor method, determining the grading standards of sequences by utilizing a hierarchical clustering method, and determining the states of load values at each moment; calculating the state probability of a load in a period to be tested, selecting the state corresponding to the maximum state probability as the state of the load in a forecast period, wherein the interval mid-value of the state i is the forecast value at a forecast point. By the method for screening historical data vectors by utilizing an improved shape factor, comprehensively considering various influencing factors at similar moments, and accurately screening the historical data according to the characteristics of an impact load and a small hydropower load, the historical data amount required in a calculation process is reduced; collinear indicator vectors are found; and a forecasting result is simulated and calculated by a matrix laboratory. The data processing defects in the conventional algorithm are overcome; the forecasting precision is improved; and design basis is provided for the forecasting of a large-fluctuation load.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to a power grid load forecasting method, in particular to a short-term forecasting method for a large fluctuating power grid load. Background technique [0002] Due to the irregularity of large fluctuating loads, the most difficult problem in short-term load forecasting is the forecasting of fluctuating loads. There is no effective short-term load forecasting method at home and abroad to solve this problem. Large fluctuating load refers to the load that changes suddenly and greatly relative to the system load. When the load variation range is relatively large relative to the system capacity, it may cause continuous oscillation of system frequency and voltage swing, which will have a great impact on the power system. Therefore, the prior effective estimation of large fluctuating loads is a powerful guarantee for rational economic dispatch of the power system, reducing production costs, and preventing large-scale power outages or g...

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