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Wind power predication value pre-evaluation method based on wind power longitudinal time probability distribution

A technology of wind power prediction and probability distribution, which is applied in special data processing applications, instruments, electrical digital data processing, etc., and can solve problems such as the inability to give the predicted value, the probability of occurrence and the reliability of the predicted value, etc.

Active Publication Date: 2013-07-10
STATE GRID CORP OF CHINA +1
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  • Abstract
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Problems solved by technology

[0004] The above studies have either done research on the probability distribution of forecast errors, applied the distribution of forecast errors to scheduling and energy storage, or predicted the forecast errors in advance to correct the forecast value, but none of them can give the forecast value before the real value appears. probability of occurrence
In short, the existing pre-evaluation of wind power forecasting is based on the evaluation and analysis of forecasting errors, and there is no analysis of the longitudinal fluctuation characteristics and their probability distribution.
Moreover, the existing pre-assessment cannot obtain the occurrence probability and reliability of the predicted value

Method used

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  • Wind power predication value pre-evaluation method based on wind power longitudinal time probability distribution
  • Wind power predication value pre-evaluation method based on wind power longitudinal time probability distribution
  • Wind power predication value pre-evaluation method based on wind power longitudinal time probability distribution

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Embodiment 1

[0043] figure 2 is the vertical time probability distribution diagram at time 0, the horizontal axis is the ratio of active output to the rated capacity of the wind farm, and the vertical axis is the proportion of each active output interval, that is, the probability. Taking the power interval as 10% of the rated capacity, the fitting result of the probability density function f(x) of the output non-zero part is as follows image 3 , the probability that the output is 0 is prob 0 =0.2137. According to historical data (measured power values ​​at 96 points before time 0), the predicted value of active power at time 0 can be obtained by using formula (4). In the same way, the active power value at time 0 of the next day can be predicted, and in this way, the wind power prediction value at time 0 in 365 days or longer can be obtained by rolling prediction.

[0044] According to this method, the predicted value of wind power at any time within a day can be obtained.

[0045] T...

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Abstract

The invention discloses a wind power predication value pre-evaluation method based on wind power longitudinal time probability distribution. The method specifically comprises the following steps of: (1) fitting to obtain a longitudinal time probability distribution piecewise function according to a force output value of a wind power plant and probability distribution result of the force output value at the same time each day; (2) predicating the wind power through an autoregressive integrated-moving average model (ARMA) in a time sequence model, thus acquiring a predication value; and (3) pre-evaluating the wind power predication value: determining the appearing probability of the predication value according to the longitudinal time probability distribution piecewise function, or determining the reliability of the predication value by setting different confidence levels, in order to pre-evaluate the predication value before the real value appears; and a dispatching department can reasonably judge and accept or reject the predication value according to the appearing probability of the predication value and the reliability of the predication value.

Description

technical field [0001] The present invention relates to a wind power prediction value pre-evaluation method, in particular to a wind power prediction value pre-evaluation method based on the wind power longitudinal moment probability distribution. Background technique [0002] Wind power is intermittent and uncertain, which poses challenges to the security and stability of the system after large-scale wind power grid connection. The wind power forecasting technology enables the dispatching department to respond to the wind power fluctuation at the next moment in advance, but the existing wind power forecasting method has a large error (wind power dispatching operation management specification [S]. Beijing: State Grid Corporation, 2010. Xu Man , Qiao Ying, Lu Zongxiang. Comprehensive evaluation method of short-term wind power forecast error [J]. Electric Power System Automation, 2011, 35 (12): 20-26.), and the evaluation of wind power forecast value is carried out after the e...

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Application Information

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IPC IPC(8): G06F19/00
Inventor 张磊吕晓禄蒋哲武乃虎张丹丹
Owner STATE GRID CORP OF CHINA
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