A Photovoltaic Power Prediction Method Based on Ground-Based Cloud Image

A technology of power forecasting and ground-based cloud image, applied in forecasting, special data processing applications, instruments, etc., can solve problems such as low spatial-temporal resolution, no cloud image data involved, and poor forecasting effect

Active Publication Date: 2016-08-10
STATE GRID CORP OF CHINA +1
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Problems solved by technology

At present, photovoltaic power prediction methods mainly include statistical analysis or machine learning methods, which are based on historical meteorological element data and photovoltaic power plant output power data, but none of them involve cloud image data. Ineffective
Some foreign scholars predict the solar irradiance based on meteorological satellite cloud images to estimate cloud movement, but its temporal and spatial resolution is relatively low. Cloud image data with Earth-height spatio-temporal resolution

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  • A Photovoltaic Power Prediction Method Based on Ground-Based Cloud Image

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Embodiment Construction

[0126] The present invention will be described in further detail below in conjunction with the accompanying drawings.

[0127] A method for forecasting photovoltaic power based on a ground-based cloud image is provided, the method comprising the following steps:

[0128] Step 1: Cloud movement estimation;

[0129] Step 2: Predict the ground irradiance;

[0130] Step 3: Establish a comprehensive photoelectric conversion model;

[0131] Step 4: Perform photovoltaic power prediction.

[0132] Described step 1 comprises the following steps:

[0133] Step 1-1: Determine the position of the sun on the image;

[0134] In described step 1-1, determine the sun position on the image with zenith angle and azimuth angle;

[0135] Suppose the latitude of the observation site is The declination angle is δ, the hour angle is ω, and the zenith angle and azimuth angle are respectively θ z and gamma s Expressed as:

[0136]

[0137] in:

[0138]

[0139] ω=(t-12)×15° (3)

[01...

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Abstract

Provided is a photovoltaic power predication method based on a ground-based nephogram, comprising the following steps: step 1, estimating the movement of a cloud cluster; step 2, predicating ground irradiance; step 3, establishing a comprehensive photoelectric conversion model; step 4, predicating photovoltaic power. The present invention comprehensively utilizes a variety of digital image processing technologies, highlights the demands of problems, has strong relevance and practicality, and, in combination with a conventional statistical approach, provides effective technical support and methodological reference for refined predication of photovoltaic power. In addition, the present invention establishes a model in multiple steps by considering a plurality of factors, and the description of the method covers all key aspects of the field of photovoltaic predication, thus having good universality and robustness. The present invention reserves adjustment parameters for some aspects for specific application scenarios and application objects in use, thus facilitating operation and ensuring predication effect.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention belongs to the technical field of new energy photovoltaic power generation, and in particular relates to a method for predicting photovoltaic power based on ground-based cloud images. Background technique [0002] In recent years, large-scale photovoltaic power plants have been connected to the power grid. Due to the randomness and volatility of the output power of photovoltaic power generation, it has affected the safety, stability and economic operation of the power grid. Accurately predict the output power of photovoltaic power plants, provide important decision support for power dispatching, and coordinate the coordination of conventional power and photovoltaic power generation, which not only reduces the operating cost of the power system, but also helps make full use of photovoltaic resources and obtain greater economic benefits benefits and social benefits. [0003] Ground irradiance is one of the main factors affecting the output...

Claims

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Application Information

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Patent Type & Authority Patents(China)
IPC IPC(8): G06F17/00G06Q10/04G06Q50/06
CPCG06Q10/04G06Q50/06Y04S10/50
Inventor 陈志宝程序周海丁杰朱想王知嘉彭佩佩江星星何洁琼孙檬檬
Owner STATE GRID CORP OF CHINA
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