Photovoltaic power station super short term power prediction method based on least square method

Abstract

The invention relates to a photovoltaic power station super short term power prediction method based on a least square method. The method includes the following steps: determining sunrise time and sunset time of the position of a photovoltaic power station in a prediction day, inputting prediction data into a prediction system in a rolling mode, screening abnormal data in actual power data input in the rolling mode, adopting the least square method to conduct parameter fitting on the historical short term predicted power and the historical actual power of corresponding time of the predicted time in the coming four hours, determining super short term predicted power values in the coming four hours and setting the predicted power values of time periods contained in the super short term predicted power values in the coming four hours and smaller than the sunrise time or larger than the sunset time to be zero. By means of the method, reliability of short term predicted data is effectively utilized, and a good prediction effect is obtained under the condition that output fluctuation is not large. The method is applied to a part of domestic province electric power company scheduling mechanisms. A calculation result meets the actual engineering requirements according to a verification result.

Description

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AI Technical Summary

Benefits of technology

This patented technology helps predict solar energy production more accurately over an entire year based on past atmospheric conditions such as temperature and wind speed during different times throughout its lifetime. It also includes modules like this which take into account factors like sunlight intensity and cloud cover thickness along their path from one location to another. These features help improve accuracy when calculating long term predictions about how much light they produce compared against previous ones. Overall, these technical improvements make it possible to better manage electricity generation systems efficiently while ensuring consistently accurate performance across varying environmental settings.

Problems solved by technology

This patented describes various methods used during solar photopvacular (PV)-based electricity generators' production planning process to improve their performance over time due to changing conditions such as temperature or humidity levels. However, these techniques can lead to instabilities when there may occur sudden increases in load demands from users who require more than usual amounts of generated power. Additionally, current PV technology requires periodic maintenance operations with high costs associated with downtime periods. Overall, existing methodologies aimed at improving the efficiency and reliability of solar photocurrents remain challenges facing modernized grids.

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