Power transformer service life analysis method and system based on risk evaluation

A power transformer and life analysis technology, applied in the field of transformers, can solve the problems of simple model, no consideration of the influence of transformer reliability, single method, etc.

Inactive Publication Date: 2014-12-17
SHANGHAI JIAO TONG UNIV +2
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  • Abstract
  • Description
  • Claims
  • Application Information

AI Technical Summary

Problems solved by technology

However, the method is single, the model is simple and not comprehensive enough, and the influence of the mutual conversion between various states of the transformer on its reliability is not considered, and the theoretical research is not yet mature.

Method used

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  • Power transformer service life analysis method and system based on risk evaluation
  • Power transformer service life analysis method and system based on risk evaluation
  • Power transformer service life analysis method and system based on risk evaluation

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Experimental program
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Effect test

Embodiment 1

[0088] refer to Figure 1-Figure 7 , the power transformer life analysis method based on risk assessment provided by the present invention, comprises the following steps:

[0089] S1: Identify the main failure modes of the power transformer;

[0090] S2: Using the fault tree analysis method to establish a fault tree of the power transformer;

[0091] S3: Perform quantitative analysis on the fault tree by using fuzzy analytic hierarchy process, and establish a fuzzy judgment matrix;

[0092] S4: Obtain the severity weight vector of each fault factor of each component according to the fuzzy judgment matrix;

[0093] S5: According to the severity weight of each fault factor of each component, the probability and reliability of each component and the overall failure of the power transformer are obtained;

[0094] S6: Based on the overall reliability results of the power transformer obtained, an aging model of the power transformer is established;

[0095] S7: According to the ...

Embodiment 2

[0152] The difference between this embodiment and Embodiment 1 lies in the method used to calculate the severity weight vector of each fault factor in step S42 , and the rest of the steps are the same, and will not be repeated here.

[0153] In this embodiment, the particle swarm optimization algorithm is used to obtain the optimal weight ω of each fault factor i , so as to obtain the severity weight vector W=[ω 1 ,ω 2 ,…ω n ]. Specifically:

[0154] S43: According to the established constraint programming equations, namely formula (2), use the particle swarm algorithm to find the fitness function Z=f(ω i ,ω j ) the minimum severity weight vector W=[ω 1 ,ω 2 ,…ωn ], the optimal solution includes the following steps:

[0155] S431: Initialize N flying particles, and weight n severity ω i Use the position X of the flying particle id means, let the initial position of N flying particles be The initial speed is

[0156] S432: Set the initial position of the flying p...

Embodiment 3

[0165] This embodiment takes 67 transformers with relatively complete data in a certain area as objects, and uses the method of the present invention to carry out life analysis on them, investigates the fault conditions of these transformers since 2000, and obtains the short-circuit damage faults of transformer coils caused by various fault factors The specific data of the number of occurrences is shown in Table 1:

[0166] Table 1

[0167]

[0168] Generally speaking, the degree of damage caused by various fault factors to the transformer is not only related to the probability of their occurrence, but also related to the severity of the fault caused by this reason. According to the power transformer life analysis method based on risk assessment proposed by the present invention, the severity and risk coefficient of each fault factor of short-circuit damage can be obtained as follows:

[0169] ω=[0.1816 0 0.0004 0.0001 0 0.1694 0.1415 0.0652 0 0.0083 0.2835 0.1500]

[017...

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Abstract

The invention discloses a power transformer service life analysis method and a power transformer service life analysis system based on risk evaluation. The method comprises the following steps that a main fault mode of a power transformer is determined; a fault tree of the power transformer is built; a fuzzy judging matrix is built; the severity weight vector of each fault factor of each component is obtained; the fault occurring probability and the reliability of each part and the whole of the power transformer are obtained; an aging model of the power transformer is built; the age limit of the power transformer in each service life stage is determined. The system comprises a fault mode determining unit, a fault tree building unit, a matrix building unit, a weight vector obtaining unit, a reliability obtaining unit, an aging model building module and a service life analysis unit. The method and the system provided by the invention have the advantages that when the fuzzy judging matrixes are not consistent, the risk evaluation of the transformer can also be carried out, so that the practicability is improved; the service life analysis is carried out on the basis of the risk evaluation, and the reliability of the service life analysis is improved.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to the technical field of transformers, in particular to a method and system for life analysis of power transformers based on risk assessment. Background technique [0002] With the implementation of the strategy of "West-East Power Transmission, North-South Mutual Supply, and National Networking" and the planning and construction of the UHV AC-DC transmission system, my country's power grid will undoubtedly become the most advanced and complex power grid in the world. The safe operation of the power grid is the basis for ensuring a stable and reliable power supply. The collapse of the power grid and large-scale power outages will not only cause huge economic losses and affect the normal life of the people, but also endanger public safety and cause serious social impact. The security of the power grid is mainly reflected in two aspects: the safety of power equipment and the safety of system operation, and the safety of power equi...

Claims

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Application Information

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Patent Type & Authority Applications(China)
IPC IPC(8): G06F19/00
Inventor 王昕郑益慧李立学孙亦芸生西奎吴昊
Owner SHANGHAI JIAO TONG UNIV
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