Ship trajectory real-time predicting method

A ship trajectory and real-time prediction technology, applied in ship traffic control, instruments, traffic control systems, etc., can solve the problems of ships not having the function of automatic conflict resolution

Active Publication Date: 2015-04-22
JIANGSU UNIV OF TECH
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Problems solved by technology

Although this kind of equipment greatly reduces the load of manual monitorin

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  • Ship trajectory real-time predicting method

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Embodiment 1

[0045] See figure 1 A method for real-time prediction of ship trajectory in this embodiment includes the following steps:

[0046] ① The real-time and historical position information of the ship is obtained through the sea surface radar, and the position information of each ship is a discrete two-dimensional position sequence x′=[x 1 ', x 2 ',...,x n '] and y' = [y 1 ',y 2 ',...,y n ′], by applying wavelet transform theory to the original discrete two-dimensional position sequence x′=[x 1 ', x 2 ',...,x n '] and y' = [y 1 ',y 2 ',...,y n ′] for preliminary processing, so as to obtain the denoising discrete two-dimensional position sequence x=[x 1 , x 2 ,...,x n ] and y = [y 1 ,y 2 ,...,y n ]:y=[y 1 ,y 2 ,...,y n ]: For a given original two-dimensional sequence data x′=[x 1 ', x 2 ',...,x n ′], which are approximated by linear expressions of the following form: f ~ ( x ...

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Abstract

The invention relates to a ship trajectory real-time predicting method. The ship trajectory real-time predicting method comprises the following steps that firstly, real-time and historical position information of a ship is obtained through sea surface radar and is primarily processed; then, ship trajectory data are preprocessed at each sampling time, then are clustered at each sampling time and are subjected to parameter training through a hidden Markov model at each sampling time, and then a hidden state q corresponding to the observation value at the current time is obtained by the adoption of a Viterbi algorithm according to parameters of the hidden Markov model at each sampling time; finally, by setting the prediction time domain W at each sampling time, on the basis of the hidden state q of the ship at the current time, the position prediction value O of the ship in the future is obtained, and therefore the ship trajectory in the future can be obtained in a rolling speculation mode at each sampling time. The ship trajectory real-time predicting method predicts the ship trajectory in real time in a rolling mode, is good in accuracy and provides powerful guarantee for subsequent ship conflict resolution.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to a sea area traffic control method, in particular to a method for real-time prediction of ship trajectory based on a rolling planning strategy. Background technique [0002] With the rapid development of the global shipping industry, the traffic in some busy sea areas is becoming more and more congested. In sea areas with dense and complex ship traffic flow, the control method of sailing plan combined with manual interval allocation for the conflict between ships can no longer adapt to the rapid development of the shipping industry. In order to ensure the safe separation between ships, the implementation of effective conflict deployment has become the focus of sea area traffic control. Ship conflict resolution is a key technology in the field of navigation. A safe and efficient solution is of great significance for increasing the flow of ships in sea areas and ensuring maritime safety. [0003] In order to improve the navigati...

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Application Information

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IPC IPC(8): G08G3/00
CPCG08G3/00G08G3/02
Inventor 韩云祥赵景波李广军
Owner JIANGSU UNIV OF TECH
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