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Modeling method of urban electrical network distribution transform weight overload mid-term forewarning model

A technology of early warning model and modeling method, which is applied in the direction of instruments, data processing applications, calculations, etc., can solve the problems of limited distribution network funds and cannot fully meet the needs of transformation, and achieve the effect of improving accuracy

Active Publication Date: 2015-04-29
STATE GRID CORP OF CHINA +3
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  • Abstract
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  • Claims
  • Application Information

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Problems solved by technology

At the same time, due to the limited distribution network funds, it cannot fully meet the transformation needs

Method used

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  • Modeling method of urban electrical network distribution transform weight overload mid-term forewarning model
  • Modeling method of urban electrical network distribution transform weight overload mid-term forewarning model
  • Modeling method of urban electrical network distribution transform weight overload mid-term forewarning model

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Embodiment 1

[0052] The present invention establishes a medium-term early warning model for the heavy overload risk of distribution transformers in Fuzhou City during the peak summer period through mining and analysis of distribution transformer loads, equipment, customers, and temperature data in Fuzhou City, and analyzes the probability of heavy overload of distribution transformers in Fuzhou City in 2013. Predictions are made and verified to illustrate the method.

[0053] Based on the development environment under Windows, use Oracle Database to build corresponding historical and real-time databases, and build models through R language programming tools.

[0054] There are mainly the following points in design and implementation:

[0055] 1. Observe the distribution transformer load characteristics in Fuzhou urban area, summarize and excavate the characteristic information of Fuzhou area, and design the corresponding characteristic variables.

[0056] 2. Preliminary screening of indep...

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Abstract

The invention relates to a modeling method of an urban electrical network distribution transform weight overload mid-term forewarning model. The forewarning model is established according to the following steps of firstly, collecting original data of correlated variables required for modeling, and cleaning the original data so that the quality of data entering the forewarning model can be ensured; secondly, designing and calculating characteristic variables of the forewarning model, screening the characteristic variables, and establishing a judgment basis for testing the multicollinearity among independent variables; thirdly, establishing one forewarning model on the basis of Logistic regression and through a stepwise regression method, and then judging whether the multicollinearity exists among the independent variables of the model or not so as to judge whether the model can be used or not; fourthly, repeatedly executing the second step and the third step so that the characteristic variables can be calculated again, and establishing various different forewarning models, evaluating the established forewarning models, and then comparing the evaluation parameters of all the forewarning models to determine the optimal forewarning model; fifthly, outputting the optimal forewarning model. By means of the method, the accurate distribution transform weight overload mid-term forewarning model can be easily established.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to the technical field of information automation, in particular to a modeling method for a medium-term early warning model of urban distribution transformer weight overload. Background technique [0002] Due to the sustained and stable economic development in recent years, the electricity load in urban areas has experienced a corresponding rapid growth. Every year, distribution transformers are heavily overloaded, and it is increasingly difficult for power supply units to meet users' electricity needs. At the same time, due to the limited distribution network funds, it cannot fully meet the transformation needs. Therefore, scientifically carrying out the medium-term early warning of distribution transformer overload can provide reference for the upgrade and transformation planning of the distribution network in the coming year, improve the emergency response ability of the distribution network to peak load during the summer, and c...

Claims

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Application Information

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Patent Type & Authority Applications(China)
IPC IPC(8): G06Q50/06
CPCG06Q10/0635G06Q10/0639G06Q50/06
Inventor 徐建忠李晖钟云南张孔林郑磊占彤平林扬宇池文磊林旭军陈晓如刘凤杰傅俪李明周勤杨致慧徐涵吴蓓陈强林宇
Owner STATE GRID CORP OF CHINA
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