A dynamic prediction method for multi-time scale load capacity of transmission lines
A multi-time scale, transmission line technology, applied in the direction of electrical digital data processing, special data processing applications, instruments, etc., can solve the problems of not considering the load capacity of transmission lines, lack of load capacity multi-time scale prediction, etc., to achieve the improvement of transmission line The effect of capacity
Active Publication Date: 2018-06-08
ELECTRIC POWER RESEARCH INSTITUTE OF STATE GRID SHANDONG ELECTRIC POWER COMPANY +1
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Problems solved by technology
The prediction of the dynamic load capacity of transmission lines is limited to short-term steady-state load capacity prediction, lacks multi-time scale prediction of load capacity, and does not consider the load capacity of transmission lines in transient processes, and the transient process of transmission lines is important for lines Maintenance and safety scheduling are of great significance
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[0032] The present invention will be further described below in conjunction with the accompanying drawings and embodiments.
[0033] The multi-time scale load capacity dynamic prediction method of the transmission line of the present invention, such as figure 1 shown, including the following steps:
[0034] Step (1): Use the historical data of the temperature, wind speed and load current of the transmission line to build the corresponding temperature Elman neural network model, wind speed Elman neural network model and transmission line load current Elman neural network model; use the corresponding Elman The neural network model predicts the corresponding temperature prediction value, wind speed prediction value and transmission line load current prediction value;
[0035] Step (2): Using the predicted value of air temperature, predicted value of wind speed and the intensity of sunshine radiation, according to the calculation model of steady-state heat capacity, calculate the...
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The invention discloses a power transmission line multi-time scale load capacity dynamic prediction method.The method comprises the steps that 1, a temperature Elman neural network model, a wind speed Elman neural network model and a power transmission line load current Elman neural network model are respectively built by means of corresponding historical data of the temperature, wind speed and power transmission line load current of a power transmission line, and a temperature predictive value, a wind speed predictive value and a power transmission line load current predictive value are predicted correspondingly by means of the corresponding Elman neural network models; 2, by means of the temperature predictive value, the wind predictive value and sunshine radiation intensity, on the basis of a steady-state thermal capacity calculation model, a predictive value of power transmission line steady-state load capacity within the set time in the future is obtained through calculation; 3, by means of the power transmission line load current predictive value, the temperature predictive value, the wind speed predictive value and the sunshine radiation intensity, on the basis of a wire temperature calculation model and a transient state thermal capacity calculation model, a predictive value of power transmission line transient-state load capacity within the set time in the future is obtained through calculation.
Description
technical field [0001] The invention relates to the technical field of power transmission and transformation equipment prediction, in particular to a dynamic prediction method for multi-time scale load capacity of power transmission lines. Background technique [0002] On the basis of ensuring the safe operation of the power grid, the goal of building a smart grid puts forward higher requirements for the utilization efficiency of transmission lines, the reasonable dispatch of transmission load current, and the management strategy of line maintenance. The dynamic capacity increase technology of transmission lines determines the load capacity in real time according to the running status of the conductors, meteorological conditions (environmental temperature, sunshine radiation intensity, wind speed, etc.) and line power parameters without breaking through the technical regulations. It has become one of the best solutions to improve the transmission capacity of transmission lin...
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IPC IPC(8): G06F19/00G06N3/02
CPCG06N3/02G16Z99/00
Inventor 杨祎杜修明郭志红陈玉峰盛戈皞郑建刘辉朱文兵朱孟兆周加斌李秀卫王辉段玉兵
Owner ELECTRIC POWER RESEARCH INSTITUTE OF STATE GRID SHANDONG ELECTRIC POWER COMPANY