Establishment method of power grid line loss rate prediction model

A technique for forecasting models and establishing methods, which is applied in forecasting, instrumentation, data processing applications, etc., and can solve problems such as not analyzing different data and not exploring the internal relationship of data

Inactive Publication Date: 2016-11-23
STATE GRID FUJIAN ELECTRIC POWER CO LTD +2
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  • Abstract
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  • Claims
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Problems solved by technology

[0021] Existing forecasting technology is only based on the data itself, through a large amount of historical data to predict the corresponding future data. It is a purely mathematical analysis forecas

Method used

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  • Establishment method of power grid line loss rate prediction model
  • Establishment method of power grid line loss rate prediction model
  • Establishment method of power grid line loss rate prediction model

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Embodiment Construction

[0068] The present invention will be further described below in conjunction with embodiment.

[0069] This embodiment provides a method for establishing a power grid line loss rate prediction model, which specifically includes the following steps:

[0070] Step S1: Establish a p-element linear regression model:

[0071]

[0072] where x 1 ,x 2 ,...x p are p(p>1) linearly independent controllable variables, y is a random variable, b 0 ,b 1 ,...,b p ,σ 2 are all unknown parameters to be sought, and ε is a random error;

[0073] Step S2: To variable x 1 ,x 2 ,...x p Make n independent observations with y to get a sample of capacity n:

[0074] (x i1 ,x i2 ...,x ip ,y i )(i=1,2,...,n);

[0075] And then get:

[0076]

[0077] Express the above formula in matrix form, and rewrite the p-element linear regression model as: Y=XB+ε;

[0078] Among them:

[0079] Denote the estimated vector of Β as

[0080] Step S3: get will get Substitute into the p-...

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Abstract

The invention relates to a method for establishing a power grid line loss rate prediction model. Firstly, a p-element linear regression model is established, and then the model is sequentially subjected to the significance test of the linear regression and the significance test of the regression coefficient. Finally, estimate the prediction confidence interval. The invention has the advantages of simple structure, fast prediction speed and good extrapolation characteristics.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to the field of power system dispatching technology and power system safe and stable operation technology, in particular to a method for establishing a power grid line loss rate prediction model. Background technique [0002] The technical solution of the prior art: horizontal trend prediction technology, linear extrapolation method. [0003] (1) Horizontal trend prediction technology [0004] Horizontal trend forecasting techniques mainly include full average method, moving average method and exponential smoothing method. Here we mainly introduce the one-time exponential smoothing method, because it is a method commonly used in production forecasting, and is also used in line loss rate trend forecasting. The simple full-period average method uses all the past data of the time series equally; the moving average method does not consider the more distant data, and gives greater weight to the recent data in the weighted moving aver...

Claims

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Application Information

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IPC IPC(8): G06Q10/04G06Q50/06
CPCG06Q10/04G06Q50/06
Inventor 项胤兴黄婷
Owner STATE GRID FUJIAN ELECTRIC POWER CO LTD
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