Radial-flow type mini-hydro short-period power weighting prediction method

Abstract

The invention discloses a radial-flow type mini-hydro short-period power weighting prediction method. The prediction method comprises steps of: collecting regional radial-flow type mini-hydro data information and non radial-flow hydro data information; calculating the water flow of the ith radial-flow type mini-hydro power station at the jth time, the first short-period power prediction value Pr1ij of the ith radial-flow type mini-hydro power station at the jth time and the first short-period power prediction value Pr1j of the regional radial-flow type mini-hydro power station at the jth time; according to the meteorological data and the output data of the ith radial-flow type mini-hydro power station, carrying out BP neural network prediction to obtain the second short-period power prediction value Pr2j regional radial-flow type mini-hydro power station at the jth time; and determining the weight coefficients of the Pr1j and the Pr2j, and calculating the short-period power prediction Prj OF THE regional radial-flow type mini-hydro power station at the jth time in a prediction day. Thus, technical problems of failure to actually reflect influence on the mini-hydro power stations by multiple factors such as the meteorological conditions, and bigger prediction errors in the current radial-flow type mini-hydro short-period power prediction in the prior art are solved.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention belongs to the technical field of small hydropower prediction technology, and in particular relates to a short-term power weighted prediction method for runoff small hydropower. Background technique [0002] With the increasingly serious problems of environmental pollution and energy shortage, small hydropower, as a clean and green renewable alternative energy source, is different from large and medium-sized hydropower. It is mainly distributed in remote mountainous areas and is an important power source component in rural areas. It has decentralized development , On-site networking, on-site power supply, low construction and power generation costs, short construction period, fast returns, etc., have irreplaceable advantages. Therefore, they have developed rapidly with the support of national and local policies, and have solved the problems in some areas. power shortage situation. [0003] At the same time, the development of small hydro...

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Problems solved by technology

[0006] The technical problem to be solved by the present invention is to provide a weighted short-term power prediction method for runoff small hydropower to solve the problem that most of the short-term power prediction methods for small hydropower in the prior art are for non-runoff small hydropower and are not suitable for runoff small hydropower