A Traffic Distribution Prediction Method Combining Gravity Model and Fratar Model

Abstract

The invention discloses a traffic distribution prediction method according to a gravity model and a Fratar model. The method comprises the following steps of firstly acquiring generation attraction traffic of each cell and a current OD distribution; secondly, calibrating a nonrestraint gravity model parameter and predicting the generation attraction traffic of each cell in future years; calculating the OD distributions of future years through the calibrated nonrestraint gravity model; operating the Fratar model once for obtaining new predicted OD distributions of future years; and performing convergence determination on an operation result and a previous circulation result, and obtaining the OD distribution which satisfies a convergence determining condition, namely a final prediction result for the OD distribution of each cell in future years. The traffic distribution prediction method has advantages of combining advantages of the gravity model and the Frastar model, sufficiently utilizing the current outgoing distribution information, considering effects of road network change and land utilization to outgoing of the people, and improving prediction result accuracy and applicability of the prediction model.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to a traffic distribution prediction method combining a gravity model and a Fratar model, and belongs to the technical field of traffic demand and traffic distribution prediction. Background technique [0002] The rational planning of transportation projects is inseparable from accurate transportation demand analysis and forecasting. As the key technology of traffic planning, traffic demand analysis and forecasting determine the accuracy and reliability of grasping the future traffic development trend, thus affecting the decision-making of traffic departments and planners. Today, as the level of urbanization is getting higher and higher, a large number of new cities or new urban planning areas (hereinafter referred to as new urban areas) have emerged, which has brought new problems and challenges to urban transportation planning, especially in the analysis of traffic demand. and the prediction stage. At present, the traditional ...

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Problems solved by technology

[0004] Purpose of the invention: In order to overcome the deficiencies in the prior art, the present invention provides a traffic distribution prediction method combining the gravity model and the Fratar model. and the impact of land use on travel distribution, fully combined with the actual situation of the current travel distribution, and at the same time solve the problem that the growth mode of the Fratar method is single and the relevant influencing factors of the gravity model method are difficult to obtain, so that the traffic distribution of the next year can be reasonably predicted

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