Coal supply chain bullwhip effect suppression method based on es prediction technology

Abstract

The invention discloses an ES prediction technology-based coal supply chain bullwhip effect suppression method. The method comprises the steps of 1, building a coal demand model; 2, calculating a variance of a coal demand quantity Dt of a t period; 3, determining a demand prediction value defined in the specification in a goods preparation period L; 4, determining a coal order quantity qt; 5, determining a variance Var (qt) of the coal order quantity; 6, obtaining an expression of a coal supply chain bullwhip effect (BE); and 7, adjusting parameters in the expression of the coal supply chain BE and suppressing the BE. The method is novel in design, convenient to realize and good in usage effect, can effectively solve the problem of complex coal supply chain BE, avoids an increase in coal inventory amount and coal inventory cost due to incapability of accurately predicting customer demands, avoids overproduction due to difficulty in making a reasonable production plan, and is high in precision.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention belongs to the technical field of suppressing the bullwhip effect, and in particular relates to a method for suppressing the bullwhip effect in a coal supply chain based on ES prediction technology. Background technique [0002] Bullwhip Effect (BE) is a demand variation amplification phenomenon in the supply chain. When the information flow is transmitted from the client to the supplier, the information is distorted and amplified step by step. The closer to the upstream demand information of the supply chain The more severe the magnification. The coal industry, once the biggest beneficiary of China's economic growth, experienced a decade of prosperity before a major turning point in 2012. Affected by the downturn of the real economy, the coal supply chain has undergone drastic changes. The growth rate of coal demand, production and sales, railway and port transshipment volume has dropped sharply. Inventory has increased, prices have fal...

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Problems solved by technology

[0004] The technical problem to be solved by the present invention is to provide a coal supply chain bullwhip effect suppression method based on ES prediction technology for the deficiencies in the above-mentioned prior art. Effect problem, avoiding the increase of coal inventory and coal inventory cost due to the inability to accurately predict customer demand, and avoiding the difficulty of formulating a reasonable production plan resulting in overproduction, high precision, and easy to promote and use

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