A Probabilistic Power Flow Calculation Method
A technology of probabilistic power flow calculation and calculation method, applied in the field of probabilistic power flow calculation, can solve problems such as increased wind speed-wind power curve error, feasibility that cannot meet requirements, and reflection of system operating status
Active Publication Date: 2020-07-24
CHINA ELECTRIC POWER RES INST +1
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Problems solved by technology
The model of this method is simple, and in most cases, not all wind turbines in an area have available online data, so the feasibility of obtaining the output power of wind farms by accumulating the output power of wind turbines cannot meet the requirements
With the increase of wind speed volatility and the large-scale grid connection of wind farms, the error of wind speed-wind power curve is increasing, and the accuracy of wind power output probability model is also declining rapidly, making it difficult to accurately reflect the actual operating status of the system in real time.
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[0039] The present invention will be further described below in conjunction with the drawings.
[0040] Step A. Calculate the fluctuation probability distribution of the wind power through the wind power measurement sample set of the wind farm. Count the current measured wind power P for a period of time t And the measured wind power P in the next period t+1 The difference of, establish P t Under the conditions, different P t+1 Value (statistical physical quantity ΔP=P t+1 -P t ) Based on the probability distribution model of wind power fluctuations.
[0041] Step B. Calculate the probability distribution of wind power prediction error through the wind power actual measurement and prediction sample set of the wind farm. Count the measured wind power P over a period of time t+1 Instead of predicting wind power P predict The difference of, establish P predict Under the conditions, different P t+1 Value (statistical physical quantity Δζ=P t+1 -P predic ) Of the prediction error proba...
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The invention discloses a probabilistic load flow calculation method based on wind power fluctuation characteristics and prediction errors. The probabilistic load flow calculation method comprises the following main steps: step A, counting the probability distribution of wind power fluctuation; step B, counting the probability distribution of wind power prediction errors; step C, establishing combined conditions of predicted wind power and actually-measured wind power to predict an error probability distribution model; step D, establishing a wind power probability distribution model; step E, calculating cumulant containing wind electric power system node injection power; and step F, calculating the probability distribution of node voltage and branch load flow. The method solves the disadvantages caused by the fact that traditional representation node injection power random variable based on wind power probability distribution is single in adopted model and few in factors to consider, so that the solving accuracy of electric power system node injection power cumulant is improved.
Description
Technical field [0001] The invention relates to the field of power system operation and control, in particular to a probabilistic power flow calculation method based on wind power fluctuation characteristics and prediction errors. Background technique [0002] Wind farms are generally at the end of the grid with a weak grid structure. The natural volatility of wind energy causes the output of wind turbines to be random and intermittent, which not only easily causes voltage stability problems and power quality problems, but also changes the transmission of grid lines The power and the original current distribution of the grid. With the rapid development of wind power technology, the proportion of wind power in the power system continues to expand, and its impact on the power grid is becoming more and more obvious, which directly leads to a significant increase in the uncertainty of the power system, which brings safe and stable operation of the power grid. Unprecedented challenge...
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IPC IPC(8): H02J3/06
CPCH02J3/06H02J2203/20
Inventor 郎燕生宋旭日马晓忱赵昆罗雅迪叶林张亚丽饶日晟
Owner CHINA ELECTRIC POWER RES INST