Electricity generation dispatching method of hierarchical control of reservoir water-storage-period runoff under condition of random water incoming

Abstract

The invention belongs to the field of reservoir optimization dispatching, and discloses an electricity generation dispatching method of hierarchical control of reservoir water-storage-period runoff in a case of random water incoming. Firstly, the water-storage-period reservoir-inflow runoff is divided into two stages of a facing time period and the long remaining-period time period, historical reservoir-inflow runoff data of a reservoir for many years is analyzed, and a transition probability matrix between the current runoff of each time period of a water storage period and the average runoff of the long remaining-period time period is obtained by statistics; then a reservoir operation water level and reservoir-inflow flow of each time period of the water storage period are dispersed to obtain combinations of the water level and the reservoir-inflow flow of each time period of the reservoir; and for each combination, various random average inflow value probabilities of the long remaining-period time period are obtained according to the transition probability matrix, a decision flow value enabling an expected electricity generation capacity value of the current time period and the long remaining-period time period to be greatest is calculated and obtained, and a hierarchical control table of the runoff is compiled and obtained by combining after calculation for all the time periods of the water storage period is completed. The method of the invention can improve the water amount utilization rate and the electricity generation capacity of the water storage period of the reservoir in a case of considering the randomness of water incoming of the future time period.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention belongs to the field of optimal dispatching of reservoirs, and relates to a method for dispatching power generation by graded control of runoff during storage period of a reservoir under the condition of random water inflow. Background technique [0002] The current theoretical research on power generation dispatching during the storage period of reservoirs is mostly based on deterministic optimal dispatching, and the future incoming water is regarded as known. However, due to the accuracy of runoff forecasting, it is difficult to apply the results of deterministic optimal dispatching. [0003] Reservoir operation scheduling chart does not depend on runoff forecast, and has become the main basis for actual operation scheduling during reservoir storage period. The main purpose of the routine operation chart drawn according to the runoff series of typical dry years is to ensure that the reservoir can be filled smoothly. For reservoirs with...

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Problems solved by technology

For reservoirs without flood control tasks during the flood season, the water storage period is particularly long. According to the o

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