Calculation method and system for electricity consumption volume influence rate

Abstract

The invention relates to a calculation method and system for an electricity consumption volume influence rate. The method includes determining an electricity consumption target day and a comparison data in advance according to electricity consumption history data; selecting a user and calculating the electricity consumption volume of the target day and the comparison day according to the target day and the comparison data; calculating the influence rate on electricity consumption volume by the target day according to the electricity consumption volume of the target day and the comparison day.According to the technical scheme provided by the invention, calculation of the electricity consumption volume influence rate by holidays and festivals is studied based on electricity consumption datain a result-orienting manner, so that calculation of the electricity consumption volume influence rate by holidays and festivals is improved and calculation time effectiveness is improved and an effective technical means is provided for electricity consumption prediction.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to the field of electric load forecasting, in particular to a method and system for calculating the influence rate of electric power consumption. Background technique [0002] The influence rate of holidays on electricity consumption refers to the index to measure the impact of holidays on national electricity consumption. It is an important parameter for power load forecasting and an important basis for power grid enterprises to dispatch electricity during holidays. [0003] At present, there is a lack of research on the impact of holidays on electricity consumption, and a few studies are about holiday load forecasting. For example, load forecasting is mainly based on historical data (holiday forecasting is based on the historical data of holidays in the past year), using linear regression, time series, regression based on temperature criteria, exponential smoothing method, and artificial neural network method. 5 scientific algor...

AI Technical Summary

Problems solved by technology

However, from the perspective of the impact of holidays on electricity consumption, including meteorology, industrial electricity consumption and other factors, it is inaccurate to study meteorological factors alone

[0004] The statistical content of existing calculation methods is complicated and difficult to operate, and it is difficult to unify the calculation methods. There are as few as several times to dozens of times of gaps between different algorithms, which is not conducive to forming a unified system for economic and power analysis.

There are many statistical parameters, and any parameter cannot determine the impact rate of holidays on electricity consumption. While the cost of statistics increases, it is also difficult to guarantee the accuracy of data and calculation results. Therefore, such statistical calculation methods are difficult to meet today's market demand.

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