Probability Prediction Method of Regional Weather Forecast for Thermal Setting of Overhead Lines in Regional Power Grid

Abstract

The invention discloses a regional power grid overhead line thermal rating probability prediction method based on regional weather forecasting. The method comprises the steps that regional weather forecasting historical data is preprocessed as a training set; regional weather forecasting values of meteorological factors in the same season and micro-meteorological data of overhead lines in corresponding hours are extracted from the training set; the deviation between each meteorological factor forecasting value and micro-meteorology in each meteorological interval is calculated, and a sample set of the meteorological deviations is established; based on the sample set of the meteorological deviations, probability density distribution of the meteorological deviations of all the meteorologicalfactors in each forecasting interval in each season is estimated; and probability density distribution of thermal ratings of the overhead lines in a prediction time period is estimated. Through the method, a possible fluctuation range and probability distribution of the thermal ratings in the prediction time period can be given according to regional forecasting information, and the prediction result has practical significance in helping scheduling and efficient utilization of transmission line loading capability and raising the safe and economical operation level of a power system.

Description

technical field

[0001] The invention relates to the technical field of power grids, in particular to a method for predicting the thermal value probability of overhead lines in regional power grids for regional weather forecasting. Background technique

[0002] At present, with the continuous growth of power generation and load, and the large-scale access of new energy power generation, the load capacity of the power grid is facing challenges, which has become one of the important factors restricting the economic operation of the power system and the consumption of new energy. How to make full use of existing transmission components Load capacity and improving its efficiency have become the focus of electric power workers.

[0003] The maximum allowable current carrying capacity (thermal rating) of overhead transmission lines is closely related to the meteorological environment. The static thermal rating (STR) widely used in engineering is based on the assumption of relativel...

Examples

Embodiment Construction

[0051] It should be pointed out that the following detailed description is exemplary and intended to provide further explanation to the present application. Unless defined otherwise, all technical and scientific terms used in this application have the same meaning as commonly understood by one of ordinary skill in the art to which this application belongs.

[0052] It should be noted that the terminology used here is only for describing specific implementations, and is not intended to limit the exemplary implementations according to the present application. As used herein, unless the context clearly dictates otherwise, the singular is intended to include the plural, and it should also be understood that when the terms "comprising" and / or "comprising" are used in this specification, they mean There are features, steps, operations, means, components and / or combinations thereof.

[0053] There is a close relationship between the micro-meteorological changes in or near the region...

technical field

[0001] The invention relates to the technical field of power grids, in particular to a method for predicting the thermal value probability of overhead lines in regional power grids for regional weather forecasting. Background technique

[0002] At present, with the continuous growth of power generation and load, and the large-scale access of new energy power generation, the load capacity of the power grid is facing challenges, which has become one of the important factors restricting the economic operation of the power system and the consumption of new energy. How to make full use of existing transmission components Load capacity and improving its efficiency have become the focus of electric power workers.

[0003] The maximum allowable current carrying capacity (thermal rating) of overhead transmission lines is closely related to the meteorological environment. The static thermal rating (STR) widely used in engineering is based on the assumption of relativel...

Examples

Embodiment Construction

[0051] It should be pointed out that the following detailed description is exemplary and intended to provide further explanation to the present application. Unless defined otherwise, all technical and scientific terms used in this application have the same meaning as commonly understood by one of ordinary skill in the art to which this application belongs.

[0052] It should be noted that the terminology used here is only for describing specific implementations, and is not intended to limit the exemplary implementations according to the present application. As used herein, unless the context clearly dictates otherwise, the singular is intended to include the plural, and it should also be understood that when the terms "comprising" and / or "comprising" are used in this specification, they mean There are features, steps, operations, means, components and / or combinations thereof.

[0053] There is a close relationship between the micro-meteorological changes in or near the region...

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