Probability Prediction Method of Regional Weather Forecast for Thermal Setting of Overhead Lines in Regional Power Grid

Abstract

The invention discloses a regional power grid overhead line thermal rating probability prediction method based on regional weather forecasting. The method comprises the steps that regional weather forecasting historical data is preprocessed as a training set; regional weather forecasting values of meteorological factors in the same season and micro-meteorological data of overhead lines in corresponding hours are extracted from the training set; the deviation between each meteorological factor forecasting value and micro-meteorology in each meteorological interval is calculated, and a sample set of the meteorological deviations is established; based on the sample set of the meteorological deviations, probability density distribution of the meteorological deviations of all the meteorologicalfactors in each forecasting interval in each season is estimated; and probability density distribution of thermal ratings of the overhead lines in a prediction time period is estimated. Through the method, a possible fluctuation range and probability distribution of the thermal ratings in the prediction time period can be given according to regional forecasting information, and the prediction result has practical significance in helping scheduling and efficient utilization of transmission line loading capability and raising the safe and economical operation level of a power system.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to the technical field of power grids, in particular to a method for predicting the thermal value probability of overhead lines in regional power grids for regional weather forecasting. Background technique [0002] At present, with the continuous growth of power generation and load, and the large-scale access of new energy power generation, the load capacity of the power grid is facing challenges, which has become one of the important factors restricting the economic operation of the power system and the consumption of new energy. How to make full use of existing transmission components Load capacity and improving its efficiency have become the focus of electric power workers. [0003] The maximum allowable current carrying capacity (thermal rating) of overhead transmission lines is closely related to the meteorological environment. The static thermal rating (STR) widely used in engineering is based on the assumption of relativel...

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Problems solved by technology

However, the existing research on the thermal setting prediction of overhead lines is mainly based on the online monitoring data of the microclimate of the overhead lines. Although the related technologies of the online monitoring of the overhead lines are relatively mature (such as the DTR system), its implementation will inevitably increase the related measurement and communication Equipment investment and daily operation and maintenance costs limit the wide application of overhead line dynamic thermal setting calculation and prediction technology to a certain extent

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