Power forecasting method under the condition of stopping and limiting production based on the PSO-BP model

A technology of PSO-BP and forecasting method, which is applied in the field of power forecasting to achieve ideal forecasting results

Inactive Publication Date: 2019-01-04
NORTH CHINA ELECTRIC POWER UNIV (BAODING)
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  • Application Information

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Problems solved by technology

However, there are few intelligent forecasting methods that consider regional electricity consumption under the influence o

Method used

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  • Power forecasting method under the condition of stopping and limiting production based on the PSO-BP model
  • Power forecasting method under the condition of stopping and limiting production based on the PSO-BP model
  • Power forecasting method under the condition of stopping and limiting production based on the PSO-BP model

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Embodiment 1

[0079] In order to analyze the influence factors of production stop and production restriction measures on electricity consumption reduction, this embodiment takes large-scale event 1 and large-scale event 2 as examples, and actually decomposes the electricity consumption during large-scale event 1 and large-scale event 2, and then decomposes Analysis and comparison of electricity consumption reduction, get the influence factors of production stop and limit measures on electricity consumption reduction.

[0080] (1) Large-scale event 1

[0081] In this embodiment, the industries whose electricity consumption accounts for more than 3% of the electricity consumption of the whole society in area B are selected as the key industries for research, namely ferrous metal ore mining and dressing industry, non-metallic mineral product industry, chemical raw material and chemical product manufacturing industry, ferrous metal Smelting and rolling processing industry, metal products indust...

Embodiment 2

[0086] In order to verify the effectiveness and practicability of the present invention, the present embodiment selects 8 influencing factors of the air quality index in B area during large-scale event 1, large-scale event 2 and large-scale event 3 and before and after the stage as the input variables of the PSO-BP prediction model , taking the daily electricity consumption data in area B as the output variable, and predicting and simulating the electricity consumption during the activity period, the eight influencing factors of the air quality index include AQI index, steel production, cement production, maximum temperature, and minimum temperature , wind speed, precipitation and day type, the number of neurons in the network input layer of the PSO-BP prediction model is 8, the number of neurons in the hidden layer is 16, the number of neurons in the output layer is 1, and the total number of particle swarms N= 60. The maximum number of iterations T max =100, the maximum valu...

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Abstract

The invention discloses a PSO-based electric quantity forecasting method, which belongs to the technical field of electric quantity forecasting. The forecasting method of electricity quantity under the policy of cut-off and limited production based on BP model. Firstly, the input data are analyzed and processed. Then, taking historical electricity consumption as independent variable and historicalelectricity consumption as dependent variable to train samples, using PSO algorithm to optimize the weights and thresholds of BP neural network, calculating the prediction accuracy of different parameters, and obtaining the weights and thresholds of BP model with high prediction accuracy; Finally, the BP neural network model is forecasted, the optimized parameters of particle swarm optimization algorithm and the forecasting samples are input to the forecasting model, and the forecasting value is obtained. BP neural network algorithm is optimize by PSO, Considering the influence of air qualityindex, meteorological factors and the output factors of main production stopping and limiting products on electricity consumption, the eigenvector of electricity consumption is studied and trained, and the forecasting effect is proved to be ideal by experiments. A new way of forecasting electricity consumption under the influence of production stopping and limiting policy is provided.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention belongs to the technical field of power forecasting, and in particular relates to a power forecasting method based on a PSO-BP model in the case of production shutdown and limitation. Background technique [0002] The development of the power industry must continuously improve the operating efficiency of the power grid to meet the needs of economic and social development and people's daily electricity consumption. Correctly judging and predicting the changing trend of power demand in the future is of great significance for power companies to plan accurately, scientifically and rationally, and improve the stability and economy of power system operation. In recent years, in order to effectively ensure the air quality in areas where major events and activities are held, the government will temporarily suspend and limit production. During major events, the measures to stop production and limit production have significantly improved air quali...

Claims

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Application Information

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IPC IPC(8): G06Q10/04G06Q10/06G06Q50/06G06N3/08
CPCG06Q10/04G06N3/084G06Q10/067G06Q50/06
Inventor 牛东晓康辉戴舒羽浦迪
Owner NORTH CHINA ELECTRIC POWER UNIV (BAODING)
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