Power forecasting method under the condition of stopping and limiting production based on the PSO-BP model

Abstract

The invention discloses a PSO-based electric quantity forecasting method, which belongs to the technical field of electric quantity forecasting. The forecasting method of electricity quantity under the policy of cut-off and limited production based on BP model. Firstly, the input data are analyzed and processed. Then, taking historical electricity consumption as independent variable and historicalelectricity consumption as dependent variable to train samples, using PSO algorithm to optimize the weights and thresholds of BP neural network, calculating the prediction accuracy of different parameters, and obtaining the weights and thresholds of BP model with high prediction accuracy; Finally, the BP neural network model is forecasted, the optimized parameters of particle swarm optimization algorithm and the forecasting samples are input to the forecasting model, and the forecasting value is obtained. BP neural network algorithm is optimize by PSO, Considering the influence of air qualityindex, meteorological factors and the output factors of main production stopping and limiting products on electricity consumption, the eigenvector of electricity consumption is studied and trained, and the forecasting effect is proved to be ideal by experiments. A new way of forecasting electricity consumption under the influence of production stopping and limiting policy is provided.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention belongs to the technical field of power forecasting, and in particular relates to a power forecasting method based on a PSO-BP model in the case of production shutdown and limitation. Background technique [0002] The development of the power industry must continuously improve the operating efficiency of the power grid to meet the needs of economic and social development and people's daily electricity consumption. Correctly judging and predicting the changing trend of power demand in the future is of great significance for power companies to plan accurately, scientifically and rationally, and improve the stability and economy of power system operation. In recent years, in order to effectively ensure the air quality in areas where major events and activities are held, the government will temporarily suspend and limit production. During major events, the measures to stop production and limit production have significantly improved air quali...

AI Technical Summary

Problems solved by technology

However, there are few intelligent forecasting methods that consider regional electricity consumption under the influence of production suspension policy from the perspective of air quality index, meteorological factors and production suspension.

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