A model and a method for predicting the occurrence of heat stroke based on machine learning

A machine learning and random forest model technology, which is applied to models and fields for predicting the occurrence of heat stroke based on machine learning, can solve the problems of poor reliability of the prediction model and lack of corresponding evaluation, and achieve the improvement effect, reduce economic losses, and fit the prediction effect well. Effect

Active Publication Date: 2019-02-19
中国疾病预防控制中心环境与健康相关产品安全所
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Problems solved by technology

[0005] The purpose of the present invention is to provide a model and method for predicting the occurrence of heat stroke based on machine learning, so as to solve the shortcomings of the existing related prediction models in terms of poor reliability and lack of corresponding evaluation based on actual data; Prediction model of urban heat stroke events and its application in the prediction and early warning of high temperature heat stroke events

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  • A model and a method for predicting the occurrence of heat stroke based on machine learning
  • A model and a method for predicting the occurrence of heat stroke based on machine learning
  • A model and a method for predicting the occurrence of heat stroke based on machine learning

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[0039] The technical solutions of the present invention will be further described below in conjunction with the accompanying drawings and examples of implementation.

[0040] A model and method for predicting the occurrence of heat stroke based on machine learning, the specific process is as follows figure 1 shown, including the following steps:

[0041] Step 1: Establish a database of high temperature events in typical high temperature cities in my country over the years

[0042] Organize the economic and sociological indicators and meteorological data of typical cities in China, including short-term lag data of meteorological factors such as city, date, number of heat strokes on the day, average temperature from the previous day to five days, maximum temperature, and relative humidity, and their corresponding The average value of long-term meteorological data such as the previous 5 years; it also includes socioeconomic variables such as gross national product, population, u...

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Abstract

The invention discloses a model and a method for predicting the occurrence of heat stroke based on machine learning. The method includes 1: establishing a database of high temperature events in typical high temperature cities 2, carrying out data matching and cleaning on that database; 3, applying the Boruta algorithm to carry out variable screening; 4, establishing a training data set and a verification data set of a random forest model; 5, determining that parameters of the random for and establishing a random forest model; 6, arranging that importance of variables; 7, evaluating that prediction result of the model; Step 8: using Bland- Altman consistency evaluation method to evaluate the model results. The method of the invention can better represent the adverse health effects of high temperature heat wave events; It can better fit the non-linear relationship variables and improve the effect of model fitting. Forecast the occurrence of heatstroke in a comprehensive way; It can reduce the population health damage and reduce the health-related economic losses.

Description

technical field [0001] The present invention relates to a model and method for predicting the occurrence of heat stroke based on machine learning, including the establishment of a model based on the random forest method and the evaluation of its model fitting effect, especially a model and method for predicting the average number of cases of heat stroke in different regions per day , based on meteorological and socioeconomic parameters in different regions, combined with machine learning methods to establish a prediction model to evaluate the average number of heat stroke cases in the future, which belongs to the technical field of machine learning applied to intelligent prediction of high temperature health hazards. Background technique [0002] In recent years, the situation of heat wave events around the world has been severe. According to the report issued by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change of the United Nations, the frequency of heat waves in the past half...

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Application Information

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Patent Type & Authority Applications(China)
IPC IPC(8): G06Q10/04
CPCG06Q10/04
Inventor 李湉湉王彦文杜艳君王情
Owner 中国疾病预防控制中心环境与健康相关产品安全所
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