A post-earthquake debris flow risk evaluation method based on object source activity intensity

Abstract

The invention discloses a post-earthquake debris flow risk evaluation method based on object source activity intensity, and belongs to the field of debris flow prevention and treatment engineering. The method is characterized by comprising the following steps of A carrying out the activity intensity grading; B calculating a probability comprehensive discrimination value F of different grading conditions of the evaluation factor under each activity intensity condition; C determining the weight Wi of each class of factors and the weight value Kj of each level of activity intensity on the area; Dconstructing a danger model of the object source body under each activity intensity condition through weighted superposition calculation; and E calculating a total danger value of the area, and dividing the total danger value into five grades. According to the invention, the activity intensity of the multi-stage debris flow source body is introduced into the evaluation model through a probabilitycomprehensive discrimination method; and the terrain hydrological factors are considered in combination with the analytic hierarchy process, and a post-earthquake debris flow risk evaluation result in each period is obtained through comprehensive weighted superposition, so that the accuracy of risk evaluation of the debris flow in the earthquake region can be effectively improved, and a more powerful basis is provided for prediction and prevention of post-earthquake debris flow disasters.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to the technical field of debris flow prevention and control engineering, in particular to a method for assessing the risk of debris flow after an earthquake based on the source activity intensity. Background technique [0002] Debris flow is an extremely complex geological disaster that occurs in mountainous areas. It is a two-phase fluid that is mixed with solid materials such as soil and stone and water and moves along steep ditch slopes under the action of gravity. my country's debris flow disasters spread across the vast mountainous areas of 26 provinces and cities, with a total of tens of thousands of distributions. It is one of the countries most seriously threatened by debris flow disasters in the world. The average annual direct economic loss caused by debris flow disasters is about 1 billion yuan. Therefore, in recent years, debris flows after earthquakes have become the main geological disasters that threaten the econom...

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Problems solved by technology

[0005] The quantitative detection and evaluation method for the risk of debris flow disclosed in this patent document, although the material source is taken into account, is not well combined with the hydraulic conditions. The material source has great uncertainty, and the activity intensity of the material source itself is not considered. , the source of provenance is in the process of dynamic evolution every year, and the activity intensity directly affects the accuracy of the assessment results of debris flow hazards. Therefore, it cannot effectively predict the debris flow disaster after the earthquake, and cannot provide a strong basis for the prevention and control of the debris flow disaster after the earthquake.

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