Calculation method of power system probabilistic power flow based on the principle of probability conservation

Abstract

The present invention is a power system probability flow calculation method based on the principle of probability conservation. The method includes: acquiring various data of a power system network containing new energy sources; performing statistical analysis on conventional generator output, new energy output and load power historical data, And generate the probability model of the injected power of all nodes in the power system; establish the linearization model of the power flow calculation equation; according to the relationship of the linearization equation, based on the principle of probability conservation in probability theory, establish the relationship between the probability density functions of different random variables Using the definition and properties of the δ function, the relationship between the probability density functions of different random variables is processed to generate the probability density functions of the node voltage, branch power flow and branch active power loss in the power system. This method can obtain accurate probabilistic power flow calculation results, which reasonably reflect the probability characteristics of node voltage, branch power flow and branch active power loss in the system, and have high calculation efficiency.

Description

technical field [0001] The present invention is a method for calculating the probability power flow of a power system based on the principle of probability conservation. Based on the principle of probability conservation in probability theory, the probability density function between node voltage, node injected power, branch power flow and active power loss in the power system is calculated. The relationship between them is deduced, and the result of probabilistic power flow calculation is obtained, which belongs to the research field of power system probabilistic power flow calculation. Background technique [0002] As a typical multi-variable, high-dimensional, complex, and nonlinear system, the power system inevitably has uncertainties and risks. With the continuous increase in the penetration rate of new energy power, the uncertainty of power system operation is more prominent. Due to the volatility, intermittency and randomness of new energy output, the uncertainty of i...

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Problems solved by technology

The analytical method is represented by the semi-invariant method, by solving the semi-invariant matrix of random variables, performing matrix operations, and finally obtaining the probability density function or probability distribution function and statistical characteristics of the power flow response through the series expansion, but the series expansion It is prone to non-convergence, resulting in a negative value of the probability density function

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