User load short-term prediction method and device

Abstract

The embodiment of the invention discloses a user load short-term prediction method and device, and the method comprises the steps: carrying out the classification of users, and dividing the users intofour types: good power utilization stability, poor power utilization stability, low temperature sensitivity and high temperature sensitivity according to the power utilization stability and temperature sensitivity of the users; predicting the four types of users by adopting a plurality of prediction models, and selecting the prediction model with the highest efficiency as a main prediction modelof the current type of users; and respectively carrying out load short-term prediction on the four types of users by adopting the corresponding main prediction models. According to the method, user classification is carried out according to user power utilization characteristics. Then, a load prediction algorithm is selected adapting to the user characteristics to predict. The situation that the prediction precision is reduced when a single load prediction method is applied to users with different characteristics is avoided. The method has the advantage of being high in prediction speed, and the problem that high-precision and high-speed prediction results are difficult to guarantee simultaneously for a large number of user loads in the current load prediction field is solved.

Description

technical field [0001] The present application relates to the technical field of electric load forecasting, in particular to a method and device for short-term forecasting of user load. Background technique [0002] For power market demand analysis, power system short-term load forecasting plays an important role. It not only provides guarantee for the safe and economical operation of the power system, but also is the basis for making dispatching plans, demand response mechanisms, and trading plans in the market environment. Accurate forecasting of power consumption can economically and reasonably arrange the start and stop of power grid internal units, maintain the safety and stability of power grid operation, facilitate the promotion of the market competition mechanism, and promote the further reform of the power market, thereby ensuring the normal life and production of the society Under the premise of these activities, promote the friendly interaction between the supply ...

AI Technical Summary

Problems solved by technology

[0003] The embodiment of the present application provides a short-term user load forecasting method and device, which solves the problem that it is difficult to simultaneously guarantee high-precision and high-speed forecasting results for a large number of user loads in the field of load forecasting

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