New energy output error credible interval estimation method under prediction power optimization segmentation
A technology for predicting power and prediction error, which is applied in the field of new energy output error confidence interval estimation method under the prediction power optimization segment, can solve the problems that there are not many researches on the new energy prediction result error confidence interval estimation, and achieve good universality performance, and the effect of improving accuracy
Active Publication Date: 2020-08-11
SOUTHEAST UNIV
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Problems solved by technology
[0003] Existing research on new energy forecasting errors mainly focuses on distribution characteristics, and there are not many studies on the estimation of error confidence intervals of new energy forecasting results
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[0017] The technical solution of the invention will be described in detail below in conjunction with the accompanying drawings.
[0018] Considering that the distribution characteristics of new energy forecast errors are quite different under different forecast power conditions, this application based on the obtained new energy power forecast results, proposes the optimal reliability of new energy output errors based on forecast power optimization segmentation. Interval estimation methods such as figure 1 As shown, the method includes the following five steps.
[0019] Step 1) Use the following formula to standardize the predicted power data and the predicted error data respectively.
[0020]
[0021]
[0022] In formula (1) and formula (2), p represents the standard value of new energy forecast power, and X represents the standard value of new energy forecast power deviation, where p forecast is the predicted value of new energy power, p cap is the installed capacity...
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The invention discloses a new energy output error credible interval estimation method under prediction power optimization segmentation, and belongs to the technical field of power generation, power transformation or power distribution. The mode is a method for reasonably estimating the uncertainty of a new energy output prediction result by fully considering the correlation between a new energy prediction error and prediction power by taking the minimum proportion of a prediction estimation deviation boundary crossing point as a target. According to the method, the optimal prediction power segmentation mode for improving the new energy output error credible interval estimation accuracy is determined, error credible interval estimation can be carried out on subsequent new energy output based on the optimal segmentation mode, and therefore a scientific basis is provided for standby arrangement of system scheduling.
Description
technical field [0001] The invention relates to an electric power system and its automation technology, in particular to a method for estimating a credible interval of a new energy output error under predicted power optimization segments, which belongs to the technical field of power generation, power transformation or power distribution. Background technique [0002] The continuous increase in the access of new energy power generation and the large-scale access of external power capacity have put a huge pressure on the peak regulation of the power grid. As a result, peak shaving is difficult and there is a hidden danger of abandoning wind and solar power, so the power grid is facing great difficulties in dispatching arrangements. In addition, the current backup and peak-shaving arrangements for new energy power generation are carried out based on experience, and there are large uncertainties, and there is no mathematical basis for determining the size of the backup and peak...
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IPC IPC(8): H02J3/00H02J3/46
CPCH02J3/00H02J3/46H02J3/004H02J2203/20H02J2300/24H02J2300/28Y02E10/56
Inventor 蒋静高赐威
Owner SOUTHEAST UNIV