Power grid engineering accurate investment decision simulation method based on total element data mining

A technology of data mining and simulation methods, applied in the direction of constraint-based CAD, data processing application, electrical digital data processing, etc., can solve the limitation of evaluation conclusion promotion, the inability to connect project and equipment parameter indicators, and the inability to dynamically explore changes in investment effects. Laws and other issues to achieve the effect of ensuring accuracy

Pending Publication Date: 2020-09-18
STATE GRID SICHUAN ECONOMIC RES INST +1
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Problems solved by technology

A single project evaluation can only focus on the experience and lessons of the project itself, and the promotion of evaluation conclusions is limited, and it is not suitable for raising the level of macro control to reflect investment results
The evaluation conclusions are mostly applicable to the "review" of the project, and have limited guidance for the next investment decision-making
In addition,

Method used

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  • Power grid engineering accurate investment decision simulation method based on total element data mining
  • Power grid engineering accurate investment decision simulation method based on total element data mining
  • Power grid engineering accurate investment decision simulation method based on total element data mining

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Embodiment 1

[0063] This embodiment proposes a simulation method for precise investment decision-making in power grid projects based on full-element data mining.

[0064] In this embodiment, firstly, all elements of influencing factors are mined from macro, meso and micro levels, and a large number of factors that may affect power grid investment are screened out. Combining macro factors and meso factors, system dynamics is used to establish an investment scale prediction model , and modify the investment scale according to the grid income coefficient. At the same time, the grid project investment evaluation index system is established based on micro-factors, and the grid reserve project is evaluated. Then, with the investment scale as the constraint, the genetic algorithm is used to optimize the grid project investment, so as to realize the precise investment of the grid project. The software tools involved mainly include EXCEL, Vensim and Matlab.

[0065] Such as figure 1 As shown, the...

Embodiment 2

[0114] This embodiment proposes a simulation system for precise investment decision-making in power grid projects based on full-element data mining.

[0115] The system proposed in this embodiment includes:

[0116] The factor mining module adopts the Frisch comprehensive analysis method to carry out multi-level mining and analysis of all factors affecting factors from the macro, meso and micro levels, summarizes and screens the main influencing factors at different levels, and obtains and outputs macro and meso factors related to power grid project investment. and microscopic factors.

[0117] In this embodiment, the factor mining module sorts out the factors that may affect the grid investment from the macro, meso and micro levels;

[0118] At the macro level, the influencing factors can be extracted from four aspects: economic factors, social factors, policy factors, and technical factors. Economic factors mainly include GDP, per capita GDP, fixed asset investment of the w...

Embodiment 3

[0125] This embodiment is based on the historical data of power grid investment in S region from 2009 to 2019, combined with the historical data of relevant statistical influencing factors in the past 10 years, and using the simulation method and simulation system proposed in the above embodiment to carry out the power grid investment in the region in 2020 Simulate decision-making, and establish a more complete and reliable decision-making model based on the analysis of macro, meso and micro factors.

[0126] 1. Carry out all-factor data mining from multiple levels such as macro, meso and micro, and summarize the factors that may affect power grid investment. The main influencing factors involved are shown in Table 3 below:

[0127] Table 3 The main influencing factors based on total factor data mining

[0128]

[0129]

[0130] The Frisch comprehensive analysis method was used to gradually screen the above macro and meso factors, and eliminate the interference of collin...

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Abstract

The invention discloses a power grid engineering accurate investment decision simulation method and system based on total element data mining, and solves the problem that a decision result is not accurate enough due to the fact that factors considered by a traditional investment decision simulation technology are not comprehensive. According to the method, a Frisch comprehensive analysis method isadopted, multi-level full-factor influence factor mining analysis is performed from macroscopic, mesoscopic and microscopic aspects, an investment scale prediction model is established by utilizing system dynamics in combination with macroscopic factors and mesoscopic factors, and the investment scale is corrected according to a power grid income coefficient. A power grid project investment evaluation index system is established according to microcosmic factors, a power grid reserve project is evaluated, then power grid project investment optimization is performed by adopting a genetic algorithm with the investment scale as a constraint, and the method can be used for future power grid project investment decision making and provides technical support for accurate investment of power gridprojects.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to the technical field of auxiliary decision-making for power grid engineering investment, in particular to a simulation method and system for precise investment decision-making in power grid engineering based on full-element data mining. Background technique [0002] From the perspective of the macro situation, although my country's economy still has downward pressure, it is relatively controllable. The focus of macroeconomic regulation has shifted from pursuing economic growth to emphasizing the quality of economic growth, and the economic structure has continued to be optimized. In response to the downward pressure on the economy, the state has issued a series of major decisions and deployments centering on stabilizing growth, promoting reform, adjusting structure, and benefiting people's livelihood. Under the current situation of continuous fluctuations in electricity consumption, the state requires increased investment in pow...

Claims

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Application Information

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IPC IPC(8): G06F30/27G06N3/12G06F16/2458G06Q10/04G06Q50/06G06F111/04
CPCG06N3/126G06Q10/04G06Q50/06G06F16/2465G06F30/27G06F2111/04Y04S10/50Y02D10/00
Inventor 杜英马天男焦杰何璞玉杨侃王芸蹇亚玲
Owner STATE GRID SICHUAN ECONOMIC RES INST
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