Method for accurately predicting tunnel surrounding rock displacement

Abstract

The invention discloses a method for accurately predicting tunnel surrounding rock displacement. The method comprises the following steps of after a tunnel is excavated, timely collecting displacementdata such as surface subsidence, vault subsidence, peripheral convergence and the like, recording time, and drawing a time-displacement scatter diagram; according to an exponential model, a logarithmmodel and a hyperbolic model given by Technical Regulations for Monitoring and Measurement of Railway Tunnel (Q / CR 9218-2015), carrying out regression analysis on three displacement duration models at the same time; according to a probability theory and a mathematical statistics related theory, carrying out significance tests of regression models and regression coefficients on the three types ofmodels respectively; taking the model with the minimum residual sum of squares as the regression model after passing the significance test of the regression model and the regression coefficient. According to the method, the regression of one of the exponential model, the logarithmic model and the hyperbolic model can be avoided, the regression of insignificant models can be avoided, the model withthe optimal regression effect can be used as the regression model, and the optimal regression effect means that the regression value is closest to the measured value.

Description

Technical field [0001] The invention belongs to the technical field of tunnel engineering, and specifically relates to a method for accurately predicting the displacement of the surrounding rock of a tunnel. Background technique [0002] For tunnel engineering, displacement monitoring and measurement items such as ground settlement, vault subsidence, and surrounding convergence are mandatory items and are also an important part of the new Austrian method of construction. During the tunnel construction process, the measured displacements are generally drawn according to time-displacement scatter diagrams, and then approved mathematical models are selected for fitting analysis. The mathematical models can be based on the "Technical Regulations for Monitoring and Measurement of Railway Tunnels (Q / CR9218-2015)” to choose the exponential model, logarithmic model, and hyperbolic model, and then predict and analyze the maximum or final displacement, and compare and analyze it with the ...

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Problems solved by technology

[0003] In the regression fitting process of tunnel surrounding rock displacement, by reviewing the existing literature, the following three problems were found. 1. Some literatures only use one of the above three types of models for regression; 2. Some literatures are not good at regression fitting No significance test was carried out during the process; 3. Although some literatures used the above three types of models for regression, the final model was selected based on the correlation coefficient

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