Default probability prediction method and device
A technology of probability prediction and probability prediction, which is applied in the computer field, can solve problems such as inaccurate prediction results, achieve accurate default probability prediction results, reduce resonance effects, and avoid misjudgment.
Pending Publication Date: 2021-02-02
北京贝壳时代网络科技有限公司
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[0004] The embodiment of the present invention provides a method and device for predicting the probability of default, which is used to solve the defect of inaccurate prediction results in the prior art and realize more accurate prediction of the probability of default
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[0035] In order to make the purpose, technical solutions and advantages of the embodiments of the present invention clearer, the technical solutions in the embodiments of the present invention will be clearly and completely described below in conjunction with the drawings in the embodiments of the present invention. Obviously, the described embodiments It is a part of embodiments of the present invention, but not all embodiments. Based on the embodiments of the present invention, all other embodiments obtained by persons of ordinary skill in the art without creative efforts fall within the protection scope of the present invention.
[0036] In order to overcome the above-mentioned problems in the prior art, an embodiment of the present invention provides a method and device for predicting the probability of default. It resonates with the natural cycle of the probability of default, and if it resonates, it is corrected accordingly to obtain more accurate prediction results of t...
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The embodiment of the invention provides a default probability prediction method and device. The method comprises the steps: inputting probability prediction features of a to-be-predicted target intoa default probability prediction model, and outputting a preliminary prediction probability; and if the preliminary prediction probability needs to be corrected according to industry characteristics corresponding to the to-be-predicted target, correcting the preliminary prediction probability, and acquiring a default probability prediction result of the to-be-predicted target, wherein the defaultprobability prediction model is obtained after training by taking probability prediction feature sample data as a sample and taking non-default or default data corresponding to the probability prediction feature sample data as a sample label. According to the default probability prediction method and device provided by the embodiment of the invention, when the preliminary prediction probability needs to be corrected according to the industry characteristics corresponding to the to-be-predicted target, the preliminary prediction probability is corrected, the default probability prediction result of the to-be-predicted target is obtained, prediction with periodic fluctuation adjustment can be carried out on the default probability, and a more accurate default probability prediction result can be obtained.
Description
technical field [0001] The present invention relates to the field of computer technology, in particular to a default probability prediction method and device. Background technique [0002] When predicting the default probability of an enterprise or individual, it is usually based on the basic information of the target to be predicted and basic data such as financial data. After obtaining the probability prediction features, the probability prediction features of the target to be predicted are input into the default probability prediction model, and the output is to be predicted. The prediction result of the probability of default of the target. [0003] Existing methods tend to resonate between the forecast results and the natural cycle of the default probability, causing the forecast results to lag behind the actual default possibility of the enterprise, which will increase the uncertainty and error rate of the default probability forecast. Contents of the invention [0...
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IPC IPC(8): G06Q10/04G06F17/18G06K9/62G06Q10/06
CPCG06Q10/04G06F17/18G06Q10/0635G06F18/23G06F18/214Y02P90/30
Inventor 贺欧文卜志成
Owner 北京贝壳时代网络科技有限公司