Method for predicting development trend of unknown novel viruses

A technology for developing trends and forecasting methods, applied in epidemic alert systems, complex mathematical operations, medical informatics, etc. Effect

Pending Publication Date: 2021-02-09
上海荷福人工智能科技(集团)有限公司
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  • Abstract
  • Description
  • Claims
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AI Technical Summary

Problems solved by technology

[0005] The technical problem to be solved by the present invention is to provide a method for predicting the development trend of unknown new viruses, which solves the prediction and estimation of the development trend of infectious diseases in the prior art. Because it is based on lagging or one-sided information, it lacks Reliability-targeted model basis leads to inaccurate prediction conclusions

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  • Method for predicting development trend of unknown novel viruses
  • Method for predicting development trend of unknown novel viruses
  • Method for predicting development trend of unknown novel viruses

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Embodiment

[0020] figure 1 It is a schematic flow chart of the steps of the present invention, such as figure 1 As shown, a method for predicting the development trend of unknown new viruses of the present invention includes the following steps and specific implementation processes:

[0021] Such as figure 2 Shown is the number of confirmed cases of new coronary pneumonia in the country from January 10, 2020 to March 10, 2020, such as image 3 Shown is the number of suspected COVID-19 patients nationwide from January 10, 2020 to March 10, 2020.

[0022] S1: Organize the data; according to the actual transmission data of the new coronavirus from January 10, 2020 to March 10, 2020, the data is sorted according to "time", "actual suspected number" and "actual confirmed number";

[0023] S2: Data division; take "time" as the horizontal axis, respectively take "actual suspected number" and "actual confirmed number" as the vertical axis, and draw a scatter / smooth curve according to the act...

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Abstract

The invention discloses a method for predicting the development trend of an unknown novel virus, and belongs to the technical field of epidemiological transmission and control. The method comprises the following steps of data arrangement, data division, data modeling, model prediction and result output. The method for predicting the development trend of the unknown novel virus has the beneficial effects that modeling regression analysis is performed according to different development stages of epidemic situations, so that the problem of lack of pertinence of a model is solved; model iterationis carried out along with data updated every day, comparison and correction with the actual situation are achieved, and the accuracy of prediction and estimation of the infectious disease developmenttrend is guaranteed.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to a method for predicting the development trend of unknown new viruses, belonging to the technical field of epidemic spread and control. Background technique [0002] The impact of infectious diseases on humans has attracted much attention. SARS in 2003, bird flu in 2005, hand, foot and mouth disease in 2008, and influenza A (H1N1) in 2009 have emerged in recent years. As a result, in addition to direct casualties and huge medical expenses, the indirect impact on the economy and the harm to the public's psychology and social stability are very serious. [0003] The beginning, outbreak and control process of infectious diseases follow corresponding objective laws, and scientific prediction of its evolution is an important link for decision-making departments to correctly judge the situation and make appropriate responses. [0004] At present, most of the predictions and estimates of the development trend of infectious diseases ar...

Claims

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Application Information

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Patent Type & Authority Applications(China)
IPC IPC(8): G16H50/80G16H10/20G06F17/18
CPCG16H50/80G16H10/20G06F17/18
Inventor 邵宇丰周锦霆
Owner 上海荷福人工智能科技(集团)有限公司
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