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Dengue fever infectious disease prediction method based on meteorological model

A prediction method, dengue fever technology, applied in informatics, medical informatics, climate sustainability, etc., can solve the problems of lack of forecasting significance and low prediction accuracy

Inactive Publication Date: 2021-02-23
中国气象局广州热带海洋气象研究所 +3
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Problems solved by technology

[0004] In order to overcome the technical defects of the existing dengue fever prediction method that cannot truly reflect the impact of different weather phenomena on the mosquito vector and the occurrence and prevalence of dengue fever, the prediction accuracy is not high, and the actual forecasting significance is lacking, the present invention provides a weather-based Prediction method of dengue fever infectious disease based on scientific model

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  • Dengue fever infectious disease prediction method based on meteorological model
  • Dengue fever infectious disease prediction method based on meteorological model
  • Dengue fever infectious disease prediction method based on meteorological model

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Embodiment 1

[0046]In order to avoid only simple data statistics as mentioned in the background art, the present invention quantitatively extracts weather element data under different weather phenomena and studies its influence on dengue fever. First, screen the weather data from 2005 to 2016 to find out all weather phenomena (precipitation, drought, temperature drop, high temperature, strong wind, etc.) during this time period, and determine the degree of influence of various weather phenomena on mosquitoes; weather phenomena cannot be directly It is used to calculate the impact on mosquitoes or dengue fever, so it needs to be converted with weather elements that can quantify weather phenomena. Through the use of commonly used elements in meteorology: temperature (unit ℃, in line with T, can be used to indicate high temperature, low temperature, that can be used to indicate high temperature weather, cooling process and cold weather, etc.), relative humidity (unit %, symbol τ, in various It can ...

Embodiment 2

[0097]More specifically, on the basis of Example 1, in terms of dengue fever forecasting, the Guangdong Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention has a set of forecast and early warning systems for dengue fever, namely the "Guangdong Province Dengue Fever Spatiotemporal Analysis and Early Warning System", which uses the impact of dengue fever The multi-source spatio-temporal big data of factors can predict the epidemic trend and risk of dengue fever in various parts of Guangdong Province in the next 4-8 weeks. Meteorological data is used as the background field of the early warning system to qualitatively predict the development of dengue fever. The difference between this system and the present invention is: (1) It mainly uses historical weather data, and the method adopted is to obtain qualitative and non-quantitative forecast equations through various fitting methods; (2) The system Only the weather is used as the background field, and the actual forecasting process is...

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Abstract

The invention provides a dengue fever infectious disease prediction method based on a meteorological model. The method comprises a historical data processing process and a prediction process. The method comprises the steps of obtaining historical weather observation data and dengue fever case data of a corresponding period, performing screening processing, determining influence weights, seasonal constants and effective accumulated temperatures of various weather phenomena on dengue fever occurrence, determining a prediction model, and completing a historical data processing process; and completing a prediction process of the dengue fever infectious disease according to the prediction model. According to the dengue fever infectious disease prediction method, the dynamic prediction process of dengue fever prediction is achieved by constructing the prediction model, real-time adjustment can be conducted along with changes of weather conditions and changes of disease development conditions, and compared with qualitative calculation of an old method, quantitative calculation can be achieved; the method comprises the steps that the starting date and the ending date of dengue fever everyyear are determined through quantitative calculation, the method is more accurate than fitting of a forecasting equation through historical data, and the method has practical significance in preventive medicine and emergency treatment.

Description

Technical field[0001]The present invention relates to the technical field of infectious disease prediction, and more specifically, to a dengue fever infectious disease prediction method based on a meteorological model.Background technique[0002]Existing dengue fever prediction methods are mostly based on weather element data such as temperature, humidity, precipitation, and dengue fever case data, and use statistical methods, such as compare means, nonparametric test, and Correlate methods [1], to perform fitting to obtain the fitting Equation for statistical prediction; or based on the relationship between temperature, rainfall and other meteorological parameters and Aedes albopictus and other dengue virus-carrying mosquitoes density index, use SPSS software to analyze it and establish a regression equation; through ordinary statistics The method obtains the fitted forecast equation or the regression forecast equation to predict the dengue fever.[0003]The above method of forecasting...

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Application Information

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Patent Type & Authority Applications(China)
IPC IPC(8): G16H50/80
CPCG16H50/80Y02A90/10
Inventor 陈静卜今胡罡毛小飞肖辉董光辉乐迁
Owner 中国气象局广州热带海洋气象研究所