Reservoir irrigation optimal scheduling method considering multiple uncertainties

Abstract

The invention provides a reservoir irrigation optimal scheduling method considering multiple uncertainties. The method comprises the following steps: constructing an initial scene considering rainfall uncertainty and runoff uncertainty of a space-time topological relation; reducing the initialized scene by adopting a scene reduction criterion based on probability measurement; establishing a reservoir irrigation optimal scheduling model considering the reduction scene; and solving the model in the step 3 by adopting an island group optimization algorithm, and scheduling irrigation water supply according to a calculation result. The reservoir irrigation optimal scheduling model influenced by multiple uncertain factors is established by adopting chaotic scene planning, and the scheduling result is solved by adopting the island group optimization algorithm, so that a good reference is provided for the reservoir irrigation scheduling water quantity, the problems caused by the uncertain factors are effectively solved, and the reservoir irrigation scheduling efficiency is improved. And the reservoir irrigation scheduling level and scheduling accuracy are greatly improved.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention belongs to the technical field of water conservancy and agricultural irrigation, and in particular relates to an optimal scheduling method for reservoir irrigation considering multiple uncertainties. Background technique [0002] With the rapid development of modern agriculture, agricultural production management has become increasingly large-scale and precise, which puts forward higher requirements for agricultural irrigation and water supply. The confirmation of agricultural water resources means that agricultural water resources will change from traditional extensive management to refined management, requiring more precise decision-making in reservoir irrigation and water supply management. [0003] The effectiveness of reservoir irrigation scheduling is usually affected by various uncertain factors. In reservoir irrigation scheduling, meteorological factors are one of the most important uncertain factors, which have the characteristi...

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Problems solved by technology

The implicit stochastic model belongs to the black box model. The model is established by implicitly considering the runoff forecast information and combined with the ideal solution obtained by the deterministic method. The implicit stochastic model does not consider the benefit and stability of the reservoir operation, and it is used in the excavation of reservoirs with complex conditions. The availability of scheduling rules is low; the parameter-simulation-optimization model expresses the scheduling rules in the form of parameters, and uses the optimization algorithm to optimize the parameters of the rule curve. How to define reasonable scheduling rules in the parameter-simulation-optimization model method , Improving the efficiency of the model is still a huge challenge; the apparent stochastic model takes the uncertain runoff information into the algorithm, and uses the stochastic optimization algorithm to solve the scheduling model. Higher coupling can lead to a better reservoir operation plan, but there is still the problem of "curse of dimensionality", and further research is needed to describe the uncertain factors

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