The invention provides an irrigation decision-making system and method based on an agricultural system model, and belongs to the technical field of agricultural irrigation decision-making. The system comprises a meteorological data interface, a meteorological database, the calibrated agricultural system model, a calibrated agricultural system model base, an irrigation decision-making algorithm, an irrigation decision-making algorithm base and an irrigation control system, wherein the meteorological data interface is used for providing meteorological data needed for calculation for the calibrated agricultural system model, the calibrated agricultural system model is used for conducting calculation according to meteorological conditions to obtain crop growth information and soil and crop moisture conditions, the irrigation decision-making algorithm is used for judging whether irrigation is conducted or not and calculating the irrigation amount according to the model calculation result, and the irrigation control system is used for conducting irrigation according to the irrigation amount calculated by the irrigation decision-making algorithm. The irrigation decision-making system and method based on the agricultural system model overcome the defects of an existing irrigation decision-making system and method, an accurate irrigation plan is made without installing field sensors, and a future irrigation plan and the corresponding irrigation effect can be predicted.