Ultra-short-term wind power plant power prediction method combined with meteorological factors

A technology for wind power prediction and meteorological factors, which is applied in electrical digital data processing, instruments, chaotic models, etc., can solve the problem of low accuracy of ultra-short-term wind power prediction, improve the optimization accuracy and solution speed, avoid premature phenomenon, Avoid the effects of lower population diversity

Pending Publication Date: 2021-04-30
FUXIN POWER SUPPLY COMPANY STATE GRID LIAONING ELECTRIC POWER +1
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Problems solved by technology

[0005] In view of the above technical problems, the present invention proposes an ultra-short-term wind power prediction method combined with meteorological factors to improve the low accuracy of ultra-short-term wind power p...

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  • Ultra-short-term wind power plant power prediction method combined with meteorological factors
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  • Ultra-short-term wind power plant power prediction method combined with meteorological factors

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Embodiment 1

[0113] Based on the NWP numerical weather prediction data of a certain place and the SCADA historical power data of the local wind farm, considering the meteorological factors with the strongest correlation to wind power prediction, the correlation between wind speed and atmospheric density is greater than 0.6 by using the pearson correlation coefficient analysis. After normalizing the data of the author, as the input data of GRU, start the wind power prediction simulation, set the data time step as 5min, and set the local time from 13:00 on September 1, 2020 to 17:00 on September 1, 2020 00 NWP data and historical power data as the training sample set, initialize the weight and threshold parameters of GRU, use the tent mapping to construct the initial individual population of the CDPFA algorithm, start algorithm iteration on the prediction error function of GRU, and set the number of iterations Np to 500 times, when the iteration stops, the minimum value of the error function ...

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Abstract

An ultra-short-term wind power plant power prediction method combined with meteorological factors belongs to the technical field of power generation power prediction of a power system, and comprises the following steps: step 1, preprocessing wind power historical data and NWP meteorological data, supplementing missing data and modifying abnormal data; 2, generating a wind power prediction model; and 3, carrying out future wind power prediction by utilizing the trained model and future NWP meteorological data. According to the method, new firefly individuals are periodically added into the population by using a chaos strategy in the iteration process, so that the prediction precision of the ultra-short-term wind power is improved, and a favorable basis is provided for scheduling personnel of a power grid department to perform short-term scheduling decision arrangement.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention belongs to the technical field of power system power forecasting, and in particular relates to an ultra-short-term wind farm power forecasting method combined with meteorological factors. Background technique [0002] In recent years, my country's wind power generation has developed rapidly. By the end of 2015, my country's total installed wind power capacity had reached 128.3 million kW, ranking first in the world for four consecutive years. By 2020, my country's wind power installed capacity is expected to reach more than 240 million kW. Compared with hydropower, thermal power, nuclear power and other energy sources, wind power generation is mainly determined by natural conditions such as wind speed, wind direction, air pressure, temperature, humidity, etc., and has the characteristics of intermittent, fluctuating, and random. Large-scale wind power grid integration has brought challenges to the safe and stable operation of the power gr...

Claims

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Application Information

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IPC IPC(8): G06F30/27G06N7/08G06F111/06G06F113/06
CPCG06F30/27G06N7/08G06F2111/06G06F2113/06
Inventor 单锦宁王洪哲王荣茂王琛淇陈刚王鑫马欣慰赵琰宁兆秋马艳娟
Owner FUXIN POWER SUPPLY COMPANY STATE GRID LIAONING ELECTRIC POWER
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