Simplified global climate change prediction method

A prediction method and climate change technology, applied in the field of climatology, can solve problems such as great impact, unfavorable understanding and understanding of global climate change, and complex parameters of traditional methods

Inactive Publication Date: 2021-05-14
SHANGHAI MARITIME UNIVERSITY
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Problems solved by technology

However, the climate is a long-term average state, and there is little change in a short period of time. Global warming is a global problem on the climate scale. The study of global temperature change from the perspective of climate requires long-term accumulation of observations on a global scale, rather than a single To study climate change in a certain region within a certain period of time, while the neural network model has the probl...

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  • Simplified global climate change prediction method
  • Simplified global climate change prediction method
  • Simplified global climate change prediction method

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Embodiment Construction

[0053]In order to make the purpose, technical solutions and advantages of the embodiments of the present invention more clear, the technical solutions in the embodiments of the present invention will be clearly and completely described below in conjunction with the drawings in the embodiments of the present invention. The method includes the following steps, and the overall flow chart is as follows figure 1 Shown:

[0054] S1. Calculate the net radiative forcing of the Earth, excluding ocean temperature, relative to 1880;

[0055] S2. Analyze the linear relationship between the Earth’s net radiative forcing change and the global surface temperature change from 1895 to 1955, and obtain the final optimization model;

[0056] S3. Combined with the Earth's surface temperature change in S1, use an improved neural network model to predict future global ocean temperature changes;

[0057] S4. For the predicted values ​​of global surface temperature and ocean temperature change, two...

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Abstract

The invention discloses a simplified climatic change prediction method. The method comprises the following steps: firstly, obtaining annual average net radiation force according to heat absorption and heat release of the earth, and performing regression analysis according to the change of annual average forced radiation and the change of average temperature to obtain a simplified linear model; considering ocean temperature changes, carrying out data fitting on existing ocean temperature data, predicting future global ocean temperature changes through an improved neural network model, and finally carrying out polynomial fitting by combining the ocean temperature changes with earth surface temperature changes to determine global climate changes.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to the application field of climatology, in particular to a simplified climate change prediction method Background technique [0002] The main cause of global warming is that humans have used fossil fuels extensively in the past century and emitted a large amount of greenhouse gases. The existing forecasting methods are mainly chaotic-artificial neural network, which analyzes the change process of temperature, precipitation and runoff in the basin in recent years to predict climate change and analyze the trend. However, the climate is a long-term average state, and there is little change in a short period of time. Global warming is a global problem on the climate scale. The study of global temperature change from the perspective of climate requires long-term accumulation of observations on a global scale, rather than a single While studying the climate change in a certain region within a certain period of time, the neural network...

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Application Information

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IPC IPC(8): G06F30/27G06Q10/04G06Q50/26G06F111/10G06F119/08
CPCG06Q10/04G06Q50/26G06F30/27G06F2111/10G06F2119/08Y02A90/10
Inventor 梁冰寒吴相豪吴亮呈陆瑾汪家昆
Owner SHANGHAI MARITIME UNIVERSITY
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