Long-river-reach multi-breach ice flood flood inundation combined risk assessment method

Abstract

The invention discloses a long-river-reach multi-breach ice flood flood inundation combined risk assessment method. The method sequentially comprises the steps of basic data collection and processing, long-river-reach multi-breach ice flood flood inundation combined risk assessment index system construction, breach danger section selection and ice flood season dike danger degree assignment, ice flood dike burst flood inundation process simulation calculation, long-river-reach multi-breach ice flood flood inundation combined risk degree calculation and long-river-reach multi-breach ice flood flood inundation combined risk zoning and assessment, wherein the ice flood flood inundation combined risk degree calculation comprises combined risk assessment index assignment, combined risk assessment index weight calculation and ice flood flood inundation combined risk degree calculation; and the long-river-reach multi-breach ice flood flood inundation combined risk zoning and assessment comprises ice flood flood inundation combined risk degree hierarchical clustering, combined risk degree risk zoning and combined risk assessment. The long-river-reach multi-breach ice flood flood inundation combined risk assessment method provided by the invention has the advantages of being rigorous in design, practical and suitable for application.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to a joint risk assessment method for multi-break ice flood inundation of long river sections. Background technique [0002] As the trend of global warming continues to intensify, sudden chain floods and embankment breaches under extreme weather conditions have gradually become one of the most prominent major natural disasters in winter and spring in cold regions, with many dangerous points and long dangerous sections. , wide range of influence, etc., the levee breach disaster of ice flood flood presents the characteristics of complex disaster-causing mechanism, strong burst chain, and difficult prevention and control. According to records, in 1951, there were more than 60 overflow breaches in the Hetao embankment section of the Yellow River, Inner Mongolia, and in 2008, there were 2 breaches in the Sanhu Estuary embankment section. It can be seen that it is of great significance to carry out joint risk assessment of ice flood inu...

AI Technical Summary

Problems solved by technology

At present, the existing relevant research results are mostly focused on the risk assessment of local dike failure and damage during the summer and autumn flood seasons, and the risk analysis and assessment of single breach flood inundation during the ice flood season. Few scholars have paid attention to the risk distribution characteristics of the flood submerged area with multiple breaches in the long river section. , and extreme weather occurs frequently nowadays, and phenomena such as extreme low temperature or high temperature or rapid changes in temperature during ice flood season will become more prominent. During ice flood season, rivers in cold regions are more likely to form cascade ice dams from upstream to downstream, resulting in chain failure of ice dams, and many embankments Bursts and submersions cause disasters, so the joint risk assessment of multi-ruptures and floods in long river sections is more important, and this is also an important content of ice flood disaster prevention and risk management in the context of climate change in the new era

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