Transformer oil dissolved gas health state prediction method based on statistical distribution model
A technology of dissolved gas and transformer oil, applied in calculation models, based on specific mathematical models, instruments, etc., can solve problems such as difficult transformer operation status evaluation, single function, etc., to reduce the workload of production personnel, reduce power outage time, and reduce load Power loss and the effect of investment in emergency repair funds
Pending Publication Date: 2022-03-01
HENAN EPRI GAOKE GRP +2
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But at present, the existing transformer monitoring devices are generally dedicated monitoring devices, which can only monitor the characteristic parameters in the transformer oil. accurate assessment of the state
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[0125] In this embodiment, the power transformer paper insulation aging state and life evaluation method based on the dissolved chemical characteristic parameters in the multi-element oil includes the following steps:
[0126] S1, select the dissolved gas parameter hydrogen H in the transformer oil 2 , methane CH 4 , Vinyl C 2 h 2 , ethane C 2 h 6 , carbon monoxide CO and carbon dioxide CO 2 These seven gases are the research object of the present invention.
[0127] with H 2 For example, such as H 2 The content distribution for the first year was [3.90, 4.18, 3.92, 4.00, 3.89, 3.63, 4.37, 3.99, 3.64, 3.64, 4.05, 3.65].
[0128] The content distribution for the second year was [4.36, 3.91, 3.86, 3.63, 4.03, 4.03, 3.97, 3.96, 3.82, 4.20, 3.99, 3.88].
[0129] The content distribution for the third year was [3.70, 4.13, 3.74, 4.06, 4.00, 3.72, 3.82, 4.20, 4.15, 4.25, 4.28, 4.24].
[0130] The content distribution for the fourth year was [4.27, 4.15, 4.20, 4.25, 4.20, 4...
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A transformer oil dissolved gas health state prediction method based on a statistical distribution model comprises the following steps: firstly, selecting characteristic parameters representing the health state of dissolved gas in transformer oil according to the research of related mechanism characteristics of each parameter of the dissolved gas in the transformer oil, classifying single DGA data according to the age of a transformer, and calculating the health state of the dissolved gas in the transformer oil; the individual condition parameter data of each age are fitted into a probability graph, a representative distribution model is selected, a high credibility level is used for calculating distribution parameters, extrapolation is carried out through a representative fitting model, the distribution parameters are estimated through an inverse cumulative distribution function (ICDF) of the selected distribution model, individual condition parameter data of the next N years are calculated, and the individual condition parameter data of the next N years are calculated. And finally, predicting a future health index (HI) value of the dissolved gas in the transformer oil by using a traditional scoring method. The statistical distribution model method is adopted, the health state of the dissolved gas in the transformer oil is predicted more scientifically and accurately, and a power system operates more reliably and safely.
Description
technical field [0001] The invention belongs to the technical field of transformer oil state prediction, and relates to a method for predicting the health state of transformer oil dissolved gas based on a statistical distribution model. Background technique [0002] The power transformer is a very important device in the power system. Its operating status is directly related to the safe operation of the system. It is the core of energy conversion and transmission in the power grid and plays an extremely important role in the power system. The improvement of voltage level puts forward higher requirements for the safe and reliable operation of power transformers. At present, some of the transformers operating in the power grid have entered the middle and late stages of their insulation life, some are operating in good condition, and some have experienced many accidents. [0003] At present, there is no universally applicable method for evaluating the health status of transfor...
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IPC IPC(8): G06F30/27G06N7/00G06Q10/00G06Q10/06G06Q50/06G06F111/08G06F113/08G06F119/02
CPCG06F30/27G06Q10/20G06Q10/06393G06Q50/06G06F2111/08G06F2113/08G06F2119/02G06N7/01Y04S10/50
Inventor 李晓纲夏中原曹杰孙武魁李祺陈耀东张懂耿成舟孟庆一
Owner HENAN EPRI GAOKE GRP