Small hydropower station generation power ultra-short-term prediction method based on grid meteorological data

Abstract

The invention relates to a grid meteorological data-based ultra-short-term prediction method for the generated power of a small hydropower station, and the method comprises the steps: dividing a region where the hydropower station is located into grids, and obtaining the rainfall data of the grids; calculating a correlation coefficient between the historical power generation power of the hydropower station and the historical rainfall of the grids, and screening the grids with large correlation of the power generation power; carrying out dimension reduction on the rainfall data of the grid by adopting a local linear embedding method to obtain dimension-reduced grid rainfall data; establishing a generation power prediction model; taking the dimension-reduced historical grid rainfall data and the historical power generation power of the hydropower station as a data set of a power generation power prediction model, and training and testing the prediction model; and carrying out ultra-short-term prediction on the generated power of the hydropower station by adopting the trained generated power prediction model. According to the method, the ultra-short-term prediction model of the generated power of the small hydropower station considering the influence of the spatial-temporal distribution of the rainfall is established, the calculation complexity of the prediction model is reduced through dimensionality reduction of the input data, and the calculation efficiency and accuracy of the prediction model are improved.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention belongs to the field of power generation prediction of hydropower stations, and in particular relates to an ultra-short-term prediction method for power generation of small hydropower stations based on grid meteorological data. Background technique [0002] As an important part of clean energy, small hydropower has positive significance for optimizing energy structure and energy conservation and emission reduction. With the advancement of my country's energy transformation road, the installed capacity of small hydropower will gradually increase. However, small hydropower has the disadvantages of poor regulation ability and distance from the load center. Its power generation is affected by rainfall, and frequent output fluctuations will impact the power grid. In severe cases, it will affect power grid dispatching and squeeze transmission channels. The power generation of small hydropower is affected by the meteorological conditions of the ...

AI Technical Summary

Problems solved by technology

However, small hydropower has the disadvantages of poor regulation ability and being far away from the load center. Its power generation is affected by rainfall, and frequent output fluctuations will have an impact on the power grid. In severe cases, it will affect power grid dispatching and squeeze transmission channels.

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