Failure prediction method of rod pumping system based on indicator diagram

Abstract

The invention discloses a failure prediction method of a rod pumping system based on an indicator diagram. The failure prediction method is as follows: taking normal (or steady state) sample ground indicator diagram as an entry point; on the basis of failure foretoken analysis, adopting an autoregressive moving average (ARMA) time sequence model to carry out prediction on the characteristic quantity of a predicated sample; and finally, adopting 'a failure hierarchical method of the rod pumping system based on the indicator diagram' to carry out failure diagnosis and failure recognition. By utilizing the failure prediction method, a mechanical model of the rod pumping system does not need to be established and solved, and the problem of a training set does not exist; and simultaneously, byadopting the failure foretoken analysis, a large amount of time is saved, the efficiency of failure predication is improved, and the predication accuracy is effectively improved due to adoption of the failure foretoken analysis and the ARMA time sequence model together.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to a fault prediction method for a rod pumping system based on a dynamometer diagram, and belongs to the technical field of fault prediction methods for a rod pumping system. Background technique [0002] The condition-based maintenance of the system has gradually attracted people's attention. As the core technology of condition-based maintenance, fault prediction technology is of great significance for improving production safety, reducing production costs and prolonging the service life of equipment. At present, in the maintenance system of sucker rod machinery and equipment, each oil field still focuses on post-failure maintenance and regular maintenance, but the main defect of the two is the coexistence of under-maintenance and over-maintenance, which will lead to equipment working with diseases , or disease-free diagnosis and treatment of equipment, obviously this cannot meet the requirements of lean production methods of ent...

AI Technical Summary

Problems solved by technology

In the working process of the system, its parts and components will cause deterioration or failure of the equipment due to factors such as wear, fatigue, aging, etc., that is, changes in inherent characteristics will cause the system to fail to produce normal output; subsystems or parts will also Deterioration or failure due to parameter changes, improper installation, mutual position changes and other factors will cause the system to deviate from the normal state; the abnormal input of the system will also change the state of the system. If these changes exceed a certain range, abnormal output will be generated.

At the same time, these outputs will cause changes in the state of other devices, and these effects will be propagated step by step, causing the state of the entire system to change, resulting in abnormal output

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