Method for predicting medium-term and long-term power load on basis of logarithmical load density growth curve

Abstract

The invention provides a method for predicting medium-term and long-term power load on the basis of a logarithmical load density growth curve. A load density index value is evaluated on the basis of a load growth curve for a certain functional area according to a certain relationship between load growth and load saturation degree and the characteristics, such as non-linearity, time variance and uncertainty, of the medium-term and long-term power load; and the load at different load density stages has different growth rate according to the given load logarithmical growth rate curve at different development stages of the load, so that the more complicated load growth curve prediction is realized and the precision and the speed of load prediction are enhanced. The method can be used for predicting the whole load and can also be used for predicting the load of each block in the aspect of space load prediction.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to a medium- and long-term power load forecasting method in an electric power system, in particular to a medium- and long-term power load forecasting method based on a logarithmic load density growth curve. Background technique [0002] With the development of the national economy and the improvement of people's living standards, electricity, as a very important energy source, has penetrated into every corner of society, and people's requirements for power quality are getting higher and higher. A basic tool that is getting more and more attention. Forecasting technology has a particularly important position in the electric power industry, which is determined by the simultaneous production, transmission, and consumption of the electric power industry and the advanced characteristics of the electric power industry. Power demand and power load forecasting is the basic basis for power system planning and construction, and is an impor...

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Problems solved by technology

There have been relatively systematic studies in China, but there are still problems: the short-term load forecasting technology is relatively mature, but for the research on medium and long-term load forecasting, due to its large time span, wide area involved, and many factors such as national economic development, etc. The influence of the influence is greater, and its prediction difficulty is correspondingly greater, and the research on it is relatively insufficient; with the gradual standardization of urban planning in my country, the nature of urban land use in the future has basically been clarified, and the load density index method is widely used in the distribution network. It has been more and more widely used in planning engineering practice

However, the general practice of the traditional load density index method is to use the average load density of the same category in the entire planning area as the load density of each plot in the planning period. , the load density of a considerable part of the community is close to the average load density. It is relatively simple to apply this method. However, due to the different history or development stages of the load, even the load density of the same type of load is very different, so it is based on the unified classification of the average load density. The load of each community will inevitably cause non-negligible errors, and the use of this method for those communities with a large difference from the average load density will inevitably lead to large errors and low prediction accuracy

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