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Method for estimating uncertainty of wind speed fluctuation based on effective turbulence intensity instantaneous model

A technology of turbulence intensity and uncertainty, applied in computing, special data processing applications, instruments, etc., can solve problems such as unusable power grid dispatching plan, excessive forecast error, and excessive forecast error estimation, so as to avoid redundancy Effects of rotating hot spares, avoiding security settings, and improving accuracy

Active Publication Date: 2014-03-26
HARBIN INST OF TECH
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Problems solved by technology

[0003] In order to solve the uncertainty estimation method of wind speed fluctuation based on the existing theoretical model, the present invention provides the same wide error band in the area with small wind speed and the area with high wind speed, and there is too large forecast error, which is neither in line with The actual situation cannot be used to help the power grid to formulate a reasonable dispatch plan; solve the problem of overly conservative security settings due to excessive forecast error estimates, and the problem of excessive redundant spinning hot standby

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  • Method for estimating uncertainty of wind speed fluctuation based on effective turbulence intensity instantaneous model
  • Method for estimating uncertainty of wind speed fluctuation based on effective turbulence intensity instantaneous model
  • Method for estimating uncertainty of wind speed fluctuation based on effective turbulence intensity instantaneous model

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specific Embodiment approach 1

[0029] Specific embodiment 1: The method for estimating the uncertainty of wind speed fluctuations based on the instantaneous model of effective turbulence intensity in this embodiment, the specific steps are as follows:

[0030] Step 1: Determine the decomposition scale according to the spectral gap of the low-level atmospheric motion power spectrum;

[0031] Step 2: Use Mallat wavelet decomposition and reconstruction algorithm as a tool to decompose and reconstruct the wind speed time series of the measured wind speed data to obtain the hourly average wind speed and the corresponding turbulence residual;

[0032] Step 3. Use Mallat wavelet decomposition algorithm to decompose the squared turbulence residual and then reconstruct to obtain the filtered and smoothed variance. The square root of the filtered and smoothed variance is the instantaneous standard deviation of the turbulence residual;

[0033] Step 4. Find the effective turbulence intensity I corresponding to the hourly avera...

specific Embodiment approach 2

[0038] Specific implementation manner 2: The difference between the uncertainty estimation method of wind speed fluctuation in this implementation manner and the specific implementation manner is that the wavelet base of wavelet decomposition in step two is db10. The rest is the same as the first embodiment.

specific Embodiment approach 3

[0039] Embodiment 3: The difference between the uncertainty estimation method of wind speed fluctuations in this embodiment and the second embodiment is that in step 2, the average wind speed at the hourly level is obtained by combining the Shannon sampling theorem during wavelet reconstruction. The rest is the same as the second embodiment.

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Abstract

The invention relates to a method for estimating wind speed fluctuation uncertainty based on an effective turbulence intensity instantaneous model, and solves the problems that error bands in the same width are given in an area with low wind speed and an area with high wind speed and an overlarge prediction error exists, does not accord with actual conditions and is not favorable for making a reasonable scheduling plane for a power grid in a method for estimating the uncertainty of wind speed fluctuation based on the current theoretical model. Instantaneous standard deviation of turbulence residual difference is obtained through a Mallat wavelet decomposition and reconstruction algorithm, and the uncertainty of the wind speed fluctuation is estimated by fitting through the effective turbulence intensity instantaneous model according to average wind speed. The method is used for predicting the power of a wind power plant, so that the reasonable scheduling plant is made for the power grid, spinning reserve is determined, and the operation of the power grid is safely and economically guaranteed.

Description

Technical field [0001] The invention relates to a wind speed fluctuation uncertainty estimation method based on an effective turbulence intensity instantaneous model, and relates to the fields of wind speed prediction and uncertainty estimation. Background technique [0002] At present, many important fields involve the research and application of wind speed prediction and uncertainty estimation, such as power systems and railway construction. Taking the power system field as an example, wind power generation is one of the research hotspots in the new energy power industry in the current power system. Due to the strong uncertainty of wind power fluctuations, after large-scale wind farms are connected to the grid, they will have a significant impact on the safe and economic operation and control of the grid; accurate wind farm power prediction is an important foundation for solving this problem. It can help the grid to formulate a reasonable dispatch plan, determine the spinning ...

Claims

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Application Information

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IPC IPC(8): G06F19/00
Inventor 于达仁万杰任国瑞乔成成刘金福郭钰峰胡清华雷呈瑞魏松林
Owner HARBIN INST OF TECH
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