Uncertainty Estimation Method of Wind Speed ​​Fluctuation Based on Instantaneous Model of Effective Turbulence Intensity

A technology of turbulence intensity and uncertainty, applied in the direction of calculation, special data processing applications, instruments, etc., can solve problems such as excessive forecast error, excessive forecast error estimation, and inability to use power grid dispatching plans to improve accuracy , avoid security settings, avoid the effect of redundant rotating hot standby

Active Publication Date: 2016-08-31
HARBIN INST OF TECH
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  • Application Information

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Problems solved by technology

[0003] In order to solve the uncertainty estimation method of wind speed fluctuation based on the existing theoretical model, the present invention provides the same wide error band in the area with small wind speed and the area with high wind speed, and there is too large forecast error, which is neither in line with The actual situation cannot be used to help the power grid to formulate a reasonable dispatch plan; solve the problem of overly conservative security settings due to excessive forecast error estimates, and the problem of excessive redundant spinning hot standby

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  • Uncertainty Estimation Method of Wind Speed ​​Fluctuation Based on Instantaneous Model of Effective Turbulence Intensity
  • Uncertainty Estimation Method of Wind Speed ​​Fluctuation Based on Instantaneous Model of Effective Turbulence Intensity
  • Uncertainty Estimation Method of Wind Speed ​​Fluctuation Based on Instantaneous Model of Effective Turbulence Intensity

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specific Embodiment approach 1

[0033] Specific implementation mode one: In this implementation mode, the uncertainty estimation method of wind speed fluctuation based on the instantaneous model of effective turbulence intensity, its specific steps are as follows:

[0034] Step 1, determining the decomposition scale according to the spectral gap of the low-level atmospheric motion power spectrum;

[0035] Step 2. Using the Mallat wavelet decomposition and reconstruction algorithm as a tool to decompose and reconstruct the wind speed time series of the measured wind speed data, obtain the hourly average wind speed and the corresponding turbulence residual;

[0036] Step 3, using the Mallat wavelet decomposition algorithm to decompose the squared turbulent residual and then reconstruct it to obtain the smoothed variance, the arithmetic square root of the smoothed variance is the instantaneous standard deviation of the turbulent residual;

[0037] Step 4. Calculate the effective instantaneous turbulence intensi...

specific Embodiment approach 2

[0046] Embodiment 2: The uncertainty estimation method of wind speed fluctuation in this embodiment is different from Embodiment 1 in that the wavelet base of the wavelet decomposition in step 2 is db10. The rest are the same as in the first embodiment.

specific Embodiment approach 3

[0047] Embodiment 3: The uncertainty estimation method of wind speed fluctuation in this embodiment is different from Embodiment 2 in that: in step 2, the wavelet reconstruction is combined with Shannon sampling theorem to obtain the hour-level average wind speed. The rest are the same as in the second embodiment.

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Abstract

The invention relates to a method for estimating wind speed fluctuation uncertainty based on an effective turbulence intensity instantaneous model, and solves the problems that error bands in the same width are given in an area with low wind speed and an area with high wind speed and an overlarge prediction error exists, does not accord with actual conditions and is not favorable for making a reasonable scheduling plane for a power grid in a method for estimating the uncertainty of wind speed fluctuation based on the current theoretical model. Instantaneous standard deviation of turbulence residual difference is obtained through a Mallat wavelet decomposition and reconstruction algorithm, and the uncertainty of the wind speed fluctuation is estimated by fitting through the effective turbulence intensity instantaneous model according to average wind speed. The method is used for predicting the power of a wind power plant, so that the reasonable scheduling plant is made for the power grid, spinning reserve is determined, and the operation of the power grid is safely and economically guaranteed.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to a wind speed fluctuation uncertainty estimation method based on an effective turbulence intensity instantaneous model, and relates to the fields of wind speed prediction and uncertainty estimation. Background technique [0002] At present, many important fields involve the research and application of wind speed prediction and uncertainty estimation, such as power system and railway construction. Taking the power system field as an example, wind power generation is one of the research hotspots in the new energy power industry in the power system. Due to the strong uncertainty of wind power fluctuations, after large-scale wind farms are connected to the grid, they will have a major impact on the safety and economic operation of the grid. Accurate wind farm power prediction is an important basis for solving this problem. It can help the power grid to formulate a reasonable dispatch plan, determine the spinning reserve, and ensure...

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Application Information

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Patent Type & Authority Patents(China)
IPC IPC(8): G06F19/00
Inventor 于达仁万杰任国瑞乔成成刘金福郭钰峰胡清华雷呈瑞魏松林
Owner HARBIN INST OF TECH
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