Optimizing Method for Electric Load Forecasting in n Sections of Combined Heat and Power Units

Abstract

The invention discloses an electric load predication optimization method for N-section intervals of a combined heat and power generation set. The method comprises the following steps: reading heating historical data of the combined heat and power generation set in each hour in N time intervals when approximate linear change of the outdoor temperature occurs in 24 hours of the past day, fitting N linear regression curves of the outdoor temperature and the thermal load of a building through a least square method according to the historical data, substituting the outdoor temperature in a predicate day into the linear regression curves, estimating the thermal load of predicate day, establishing a digital model of a set heating condition diagram through the historical data of the combined heat and power generation set and the least square method, substituting the thermal load of predicate day into the digital model, and calculating the minimum generated power and the maximum generated power of set at certain thermal load according to boundary conditions of the digital model, so as to fix a generation load interval of the set at certain thermal load. The method can be used for accurately predicating thermal load and electric load intervals of a heating system of the combined heat and power generation set in the next 24 hours.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to a method for forecasting and optimizing electric loads in N sections of a cogeneration unit. Background technique [0002] In recent years, the rapid development of combined heat and power units has put forward higher requirements for the operation and management of power generation dispatching and heating systems. When the extraction condensing heating unit is supplying heat, the low-pressure cylinder needs to have the minimum safe steam intake to protect the turbine blades from "cavitation". [0003] Considering that the extraction condensing heating unit satisfies a certain external heating load condition, the electric load range that can ensure the safe and stable operation of the heating unit is determined by the unit heating diagram. For the single pumping condensing heating unit , the heating condition diagram is a three-dimensional graphic; for the double-extraction condensing heating unit, the heating condition diagra...

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Problems solved by technology

[0004] Chinese Invention Patent (Application No.: 201210520548X, Patent Name: A Centralized Heating Whole Network Heat Balance Control Method) Although the patent mentions that "Using the least square method to fit a regression curve of outdoor temperature and heating heat index that can be self-corrected online ”, however, due to the least squares method, it can only be used to fit a linear regression curve

However, the rising and falling trends of the outdoor temperature in one day are randomly changing, that is to say, there are multiple linear intervals. If the above-mentioned patent simply fits these linear intervals into a regression curve, relatively speaking, the error will be relatively large. Big

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