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Climatic change scenario revision method capable of reducing uncertainty

A climate change and uncertainty technology, applied in special data processing applications, instruments, electrical digital data processing, etc., can solve problems such as climate change scenario prediction uncertainty

Active Publication Date: 2015-01-21
NANJING HYDRAULIC RES INST
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Problems solved by technology

However, due to the uncertainty of the future development model and the limitations of the current level of science and technology, there are large uncertainties in the prediction of future climate change scenarios, which is the most prominent problem in the current climate change impact research.

Method used

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  • Climatic change scenario revision method capable of reducing uncertainty
  • Climatic change scenario revision method capable of reducing uncertainty
  • Climatic change scenario revision method capable of reducing uncertainty

Examples

Experimental program
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Embodiment

[0037] Example: such as figure 1 As shown, a climate change scenario revision method that can reduce uncertainty includes the following steps:

[0038] (1) Basic data collection: collect historical meteorological observation data (1961-2000) of precipitation and temperature at meteorological stations in the region and grid point data of climate scenarios (1961-2060). The climate scenario model of this embodiment uses NCAR model; figure 1 Give a schematic diagram of the meteorological stations in a research basin, and the black dots in the figure are rainfall stations;

[0039] (2) Use the interpolation algorithm with inverse distance as the weight to interpolate the meteorological station information to the grid that matches the climate scenario. The basic steps are as follows:

[0040] Assuming that there are n rainfall stations inside and outside the watershed, the observed values ​​are recorded as:

[0041] p s (j),j=1,2,...,n

[0042] Among them, j is the number of th...

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Abstract

The invention discloses a climatic change scenario revision method capable of reducing uncertainty. The method includes that rainfall and air temperature history observation data in an area are collected, climate scenario data, that is to say rainfall and air temperature under future scenarios, can be simulated, the rainfall and air temperature history observation data are interpolated to a grid which is matched with the climate scenario data by means of a distance inverse ratio interpolation algorithm, revision coefficients of air temperature and rainfall can be proposed and calculated by means of difference value between the rainfall and air temperature history observation data and rainfall and air temperature data obtained by simulation under climate scenarios in the same period, revision can be performed on climate scenario reference periods and future changes by means of the revision coefficients, and a revised climate scenario data set is established. According to the climatic change scenario revision method capable of reducing uncertainty, by combination with a database of history actual measurement hydro meteorology elements in the area, the revision method of climate scenarios is provided for revision, simulation capacity of original climate scenario data output in a climate mode within the area range can be evaluated, a climatic change scenario data set of a study area is established, and scientific reasonable basis can be provided for evaluation of climatic change influence.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to the application fields of climatology and hydrology and water resources, in particular to a climate change scenario evaluation and revision method. Background technique [0002] Climate change is a hot issue of general concern to the international community. In the past 100 years, the average temperature on the earth's surface has risen by 0.74±0.18°C. The temperature change in China in the past century is consistent with the global trend, with an average increase of 0.5-0.8°C. Water resources are the most direct and important areas affected by climate change, and they are also a major strategic issue facing China's sustainable development, and the relationship between climate change and freshwater resources is the primary concern of human society." [0003] The current global climate model is an important tool for predicting future climate change, and its driving factors are mainly greenhouse gas emissions under assumed socio...

Claims

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Application Information

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Patent Type & Authority Applications(China)
IPC IPC(8): G06F19/00
Inventor 王国庆金君良张建云贺瑞敏刘翠善王小军鲍振鑫万思成
Owner NANJING HYDRAULIC RES INST
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