Forest fire prediction method for power transmission line

A transmission line and numerical prediction technology, which is applied in the field of power transmission and distribution, can solve the problems of limited meteorological data, difficulty in obtaining meteorological data, and long time-consuming meteorological data collection in the prediction of mountain fires on transmission lines, so as to improve the efficiency of mountain fire prevention and reduce Small loss, strong practical effect

Inactive Publication Date: 2015-08-19
STATE GRID CORP OF CHINA +2
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Problems solved by technology

The meteorological data in the transmission line area includes many factors such as temperature, humidity, air pressure, wind direction, wind speed, etc., and changes dynamically with time, which is extremely unstable.
On the whole, the existing wildfire prediction methods all use meteorological data collection combined with historical fire point data to predict fire danger. Large human experience error
At the same time, it is not easy to obtain meteorological data because the transmission lines usually pass through barren mountains and jungles that are sparsely populated
As a result, the prediction of wildfires on transmission lines is severely restricted by the acquisition of meteorological data

Method used

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Embodiment Construction

[0022] The method for predicting mountain fires in power transmission lines based on the atmospheric numerical model provided by the present invention uses the output results of the atmospheric numerical model (WRF), including air pressure, temperature, wind speed, wind direction, Precipitation, humidity and other meteorological factors related to transmission line mountain fires, combined with forest vegetation, land cover, industrial and agricultural fire points, and historical fire point data, draw conclusions on the fire risk level of transmission line mountain fires in the forecast area. As for the specific process of outputting results from WRF (steps 1 to 5 below), the existing process is used.

[0023] In a specific embodiment, the method of the present invention comprises the following steps:

[0024] 1) WRF mesoscale weather forecast environment settings. Put the WRF assembly into a unified directory, and mark this directory as the WRF mesoscale weather forecast sys...

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Abstract

The invention relates to a forest fire prediction method for a power transmission line, and the method comprises the steps: employing WRF to obtain temperature T, wind speed V, precipitation R and humidity Q of a near surface of a prediction region at any moment of a prediction time period; determining industrial and agricultural data factor alpha, historical fire point data beta, forest vegetation delta(i)i(/i) and ground cover data eta(i)i(/i) of the prediction region in the prediction time period; calculating a forest fire index F according to the following formula: F = 0 if R is greater than zero; F = alpha*beta(sigma delta(i)i(/i)*eta(i)i(/i))*T*V*Q if R is equal to zero; and predicting the condition of forest fiber of the power transmission line in the region according to the value of F. The method employs the prediction results of an atmosphere numerical model to achieve the forest fiber of the power transmission line, thereby guaranteeing the instantaneity and convenience of meteorological data of a place adjacent to the power transmission line. The data sources are rich, and the prediction precision is high.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention belongs to the technical field of power transmission and distribution, and in particular relates to a method for predicting mountain fires on power transmission lines. Background technique [0002] With the continuous development of modern society, the impact of electric energy transmission on the national economy is increasing. This year, with the promotion of the "returning farmland to forest" policy, the vegetation coverage rate of transmission line corridors has increased significantly. Influenced by the habit of using fire in life, wildfire disasters occur frequently in power grids, and 30% of the total number of transmission line trips are caused by wildfires. Therefore, the wildfire near the transmission line has become the main disaster that endangers the power grid. Relevant data show that the prediction of the fire risk level of transmission lines helps to deploy emergency preparedness measures in advance, which can effectively...

Claims

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Application Information

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Patent Type & Authority Applications(China)
IPC IPC(8): G06Q10/04G06Q50/06
Inventor 陆佳政张杰张红先方针李波徐勋建
Owner STATE GRID CORP OF CHINA
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