Prediction method of forest growth of overhead transmission line passageway

Abstract

The invention belongs to the technology of the hidden danger prediction and management field of the forest of the overhead transmission line passageway, and particularly relates to a prediction method of the forest growth of the overhead transmission line passageway. The prediction method comprises the following steps: conducting a field survey, and establishing a hidden danger database of the forest of a whole-network transmission line passageway; referring to a natural growth rule of the tree species of the whole-network overhead transmission line passageway and the hidden danger database of the forest to generate a tree height and DBH (Diameter at Breast Height) curve of the forest, and determining an initial value of a Richard growth equation; and on the basis of the prior information and the sample information of the forest of the overhead transmission line passageway, according to the prior distribution of a Bayes estimation method, establishing a tree height growth prediction model. The prediction method realizes the precise prediction of tree height growth, is used for guiding a transmission line operation unit to make a strategy of line periphery tree obstacle state patrol and hidden danger elimination, and provides a decision basis for management departments to deploy transmission line passageway governance work.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention belongs to the technical field of prediction and control of tree hidden dangers in channels of overhead transmission lines, and in particular relates to a method for predicting growth of trees in channels of overhead transmission lines. Background technique [0002] In recent years, with the rapid development of my country's forestry industry, coupled with the implementation of the national policy of returning farmland to forests and the improvement of environmental protection requirements, whether it is a new line or a line that has been put into operation, the problem of trees under the transmission line passage that threatens the safe operation of the line has become very serious. When the tree grows within the safe distance of the transmission line, the line tripping fault may occur, threatening the safety and stability of the entire transmission line network. Due to the diversity of tree species planted in the study area and the diffe...

AI Technical Summary

Problems solved by technology

Among them, the Richards growth equation has strong adaptability and high accuracy, and each parameter in the equation has certain biological significance. Multiplication only uses sample information and takes parameters as fixed values. The estimation process is contrary to the randomness of tree growth, and the estimation effect on parameter uncertainty is poor, especially for the prediction of tree growth height under special circumstances. worse effect

For example, compared with the growth process of trees in ordinary forest areas, the growth of trees in transmission line channels has certain particularities, and will show different negative growth, positive growth, or distortion with different voltage levels of transmission lines, while the traditional model The parameter estimation method cannot fully and effectively take into account these geographical random parameters in the process of model estimation, resulting in generally low estimation accuracy of model parameters

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