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Ultrashort-term photovoltaic power prediction method based on cloud change analysis

A power forecasting and ultra-short-term technology, which is applied in forecasting, image analysis, image data processing, etc., can solve the problems of low accuracy of ultra-short-term photovoltaic power forecasting and low utilization rate of photovoltaic power generation, so as to improve the utilization rate of power generation, Accurately Predicted Effects

Active Publication Date: 2017-02-01
NANJING GUODIAN NANZI WEIMEIDE AUTOMATION CO LTD
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Problems solved by technology

[0005] The purpose of the present invention is to overcome the deficiencies in the prior art, provide an ultra-short-term photovoltaic power prediction method based on cloud-variation analysis, and solve the problem that the ultra-short-term photovoltaic power prediction accuracy of photovoltaic power stations in the prior art is not high, resulting in the utilization of photovoltaic power generation. low rate technical issues

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  • Ultrashort-term photovoltaic power prediction method based on cloud change analysis

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[0032] The present invention will be further described below in conjunction with the accompanying drawings. The following examples are only used to illustrate the technical solution of the present invention more clearly, but not to limit the protection scope of the present invention.

[0033] The ultra-short-term photovoltaic power prediction method based on cloud change analysis in the present invention adopts real-time image acquisition technology to obtain image information over the photovoltaic power station in real time, predicts the meteorological conditions over the photovoltaic power station, and then inputs the prediction results into the photovoltaic power generation model as correction parameters Predict the output power of a photovoltaic plant. Grid dispatching can timely revise the power generation plan of the day according to the output power prediction results of photovoltaic power plants, ensure the stable operation of the power grid, and improve the utilizatio...

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Abstract

The invention discloses an ultrashort-term photovoltaic power prediction method based on cloud change analysis and belongs to the technical field of photovoltaic power generation. The method is characterized by, through the real-time image acquisition technology, obtaining image information above a photovoltaic power station in real time, carrying out prediction on meteorological conditions above the photovoltaic power station, and inputting forecast results, serving the as correction parameters, to a photovoltaic power generation model to predicate output power of the photovoltaic power station. The method can reach an effect of carrying out accurate prediction on ultrashort-term photovoltaic power; prediction precision can reach 0-4 hours in the future; and through power grid dispatching, day generating plan can be modified in real time according to the forecast result, thereby improving power generation utilization rate of the photovoltaic power station under the condition of ensuring stable operation of the power grid.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to an ultra-short-term photovoltaic power prediction method based on cloud variation analysis, which belongs to the technical field of photovoltaic power generation. Background technique [0002] At present, China's photovoltaic power generation has entered a stage of large-scale and rapid development. However, due to the intermittent and random characteristics of photovoltaic power generation, as a large number of photovoltaic power generation is connected to the grid, it will inevitably bring severe challenges to the safe and stable operation of the power system and ensure the quality of power. If the output power of photovoltaic power plants can be judged in advance There is a technical basis for adjusting the power grid dispatching operation plan in time to solve the impact of the randomness of photovoltaic power generation on the safety of the power grid. [0003] Ultra-short-term power forecasting of photovoltaic power gene...

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Application Information

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IPC IPC(8): G06Q10/04G06Q50/06G06T7/13G06T7/254G06T7/246G06T7/62G06T5/00G06T5/30
CPCG06Q10/04G06Q50/06G06T5/30G06T2207/10024G06T2207/30192G06T5/70
Inventor 王永殷俊张铁男刘元范永林易金宝肖碧涛乐凌志
Owner NANJING GUODIAN NANZI WEIMEIDE AUTOMATION CO LTD
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