Method for predicting long-term trends of sea wave directions based on reanalysis data

Abstract

The invention relates to a method for predicting the long-term trends of sea wave directions based on reanalysis data. The method is characterized by comprising the following steps: 1, collecting weather forecast data at all time levels of ERA-Interim; 2, acquiring the coordinates of all lattice points; 3, calculating a sea level barometric gradient GX and GY anomaly and a standard deviation; 4, carrying out principal component analysis on the GX and GY anomaly; 5, carrying out Box-Cox conversion on sea area data; 6, calculating predictive factors of the sea wave directions; 7, calculating standard deviations between the wave directions and the predictive factors; 8, bringing the predictive factors into a prediction model; 9, bringing wave direction hysteresis values into the model; 10, predicting the GX and GY based on EOF; 11, carrying out optimization selection on the predictive factors; 12, predicting the sea wave directions by using the model; 13, evaluating a prediction level; 14, calculating the long-term trends of the sea wave directions; 15, drawing long-term trend charts of the wave directions. The method can be used for predicting the long-term trends of the wave directions at multiple time levels, and is high in accuracy rate.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention belongs to the technical field of sea wave parameter forecasting, in particular to a method for long-term trend prediction of sea wave direction based on reanalysis data. Background technique [0002] Waves have a non-negligible impact on people's production and life, such as coastal port construction, waterway engineering, etc. are closely related to waves. Wave direction is an important parameter to reflect the characteristics of waves. The angle between the coastline and the wave direction directly affects the characteristics of coastal erosion and evolution. Therefore, analyzing and predicting the trend of wave direction can help to build ports more scientifically. And coastal protection engineering, has important practical significance. Although traditional observation methods such as buoys can accurately obtain information on changes in wave direction, they can only obtain changes in fixed points, and the coverage is very limited. ...

AI Technical Summary

Problems solved by technology

Although traditional observation methods such as buoys can accurately obtain information on changes in wave direction, they can only obtain changes in fixed points, and the coverage is very limited. It is currently difficult to obtain more than 20 years of continuous The buoy observation data of sea surface waves

With the maturity of satellite remote sensing technology, satellite data are gradually being applied. Although the satellite data on ocean wave direction has a wide coverage, it is only the data of the past 20 years at most, which seriously restricts the study of long-term trend of ocean wave direction. reliability

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