The invention discloses a method for predicting
medicine sales trends on the basis of medical
big data. The method includes steps of (1), acquiring stationary
time series data on the basis of the medical
big data; (2), building autoregressive
moving average models on the basis of the medical
big data; (3), verifying residual series of
time series models to determine whether the residual series arewhite
noise series checking models or not; (4), building long-term
trend prediction models and then computing periodicity indexes of medicines; (5), carrying out
estimation by the aid of least squareprocesses to obtain periodicity index prediction models; (6), computing weights of proportions of the long-term
trend prediction models and the periodicity index prediction models by the aid of standard deviation and acquiring combined prediction models; (7), analyzing, comparing and presenting prediction results. The method has the advantages that ARIMA (
autoregressive integrated moving average)models, periodicity index models and the combined prediction models are built by the aid of the medical sales big data, accordingly, non-linear time-varying
time series data can be accurately predicted, and the method has functions of predicting
medicine sales.