Expressway Travel Time Prediction System and Prediction Method

A travel time and highway technology, which is applied to the traffic control system of road vehicles, traffic control system, traffic flow detection, etc. question

Active Publication Date: 2019-08-06
SHENZHEN URBAN TRANSPORT PLANNING CENT +1
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  • Summary
  • Abstract
  • Description
  • Claims
  • Application Information

AI Technical Summary

Problems solved by technology

[0005] Although the floating car technology can directly obtain the route travel time, at the same time, the route travel time of the floating car has a high time lag, that is, the traffic information service center can only obtain the route travel time after the floating car reaches the destination, and this car may It entered the expressway half an hour ago (if the travel time is 30 minutes), so it cannot be directly used to predict future traffic conditions, let alone predict expressway travel time simply, intuitively, and with high accuracy

Method used

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  • Expressway Travel Time Prediction System and Prediction Method
  • Expressway Travel Time Prediction System and Prediction Method
  • Expressway Travel Time Prediction System and Prediction Method

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no. 1 example

[0048] like figure 1 As shown, the expressway travel time prediction system of this embodiment includes a database 10 , a K value determination unit 20 and a travel time prediction value determination unit 30 .

[0049] The database 10 saves the complete vehicle travel time and traffic condition data association table of the floating car passing through the target expressway to be predicted. The vehicle travel time of the floating car and the traffic condition data association table can be pre-collected and stored by the traffic information management center, etc. into database 10.

[0050] The K value determination unit 20 takes m pieces of the travel time and traffic condition data association tables from the database as test data, and takes a certain number of the travel time and traffic condition data association tables from the database as training data. The data and the training data do not overlap each other, and the K travel times closest to the current traffic situat...

no. 2 example

[0070] like image 3 As shown, the expressway travel time prediction system of this embodiment, compared with the expressway travel time prediction system of the first embodiment, includes in addition to the database 10, the K value determination unit 20 and the travel time prediction value determination unit 30, The expressway section relationship table generating unit 40, the vehicle travel time information table generating unit 50, the expressway section travel speedometer generating unit 60, and the vehicle travel time and traffic condition data association table generating unit 70 collect and generate the relevant data by themselves.

[0071] After determining the research object (such as airport expressway, towards the airport), the expressway section relationship table generating unit 40 can use the built-in or external geographic information system to filter the list of sections that make up the expressway, and establish a list including the expressway identification nu...

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Abstract

The invention provides a highway travel time prediction system. The system comprises a database, a K-value determination unit, and a travel time predicted value determination unit; the database is used for saving travel times of vehicles completely passing through a target highway and a traffic condition data association list; the K-value determination unit searches K travel times which are closest to the current traffic condition from training data, regards an average value of the K travel times as a training predicted value Ft (K) of the travel times of the target highway, calculates a MAPE (mean absolute percentage error) value of the travel time corresponding to each K value in sequence according to the formula (1), and regards the K value with the minimum MAPE value as a K determination value for predicting the travel time, wherein K value is increased from 3; and the travel time predicted value determination unit determines an average value of K-determination-value travel times which are closest to the current traffic condition in the training data as a travel time predicted value. Compared with the prior art, according to the scheme of the system and method, visualization and simplicity are realized, and the prediction precision is high.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to a highway travel time prediction technology, in particular to a highway travel time prediction method and prediction system based on historical travel time data of floating vehicles. Background technique [0002] Expressways provide convenient and fast transportation for people's lives, but with the sharp increase in the number of cars in the city, the traffic flow on the expressway also changes according to the time period. For the general public, the time it takes to reach the destination via the expressway becomes difficult to estimate. To this end, the traffic information service center can display the predicted result of the travel time to the airport at the entrance of the highway, such as the airport road to the airport, for the driver's reference. Therefore, accurate prediction of travel time can provide convenience for people's travel, and improving the prediction accuracy of travel time is an important research direc...

Claims

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Application Information

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Patent Type & Authority Patents(China)
IPC IPC(8): G08G1/01
CPCG08G1/0112G08G1/0133
Inventor 张晓春李强段仲渊赵再先杨弘陈德玖张晓阳
Owner SHENZHEN URBAN TRANSPORT PLANNING CENT
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