Chinese seasonal climate prediction method based on main svd mode modeling

Abstract

The invention discloses a forecasting method of Chinese seasonal climate based on main SVD modal modeling. The forecasting method selects outward long radiation (OLR) of low latitudes and 500hPa height fields of middle and high latitudes as forecasting factor variables to conduct seasonal climate forecasting of Chinese rainfall and temperature. The method comprises steps of inter-annual increments of the forecasting factor variables, and extracting the main SVD modal time coefficient of the forecasting factor variables by singular value decomposition (SVD) as the actual forecasting factor; and constructing the climate statistical forecasting model by using multiple linear regression, forecasting the inter-annual increment of the forecasting object of the specified year, adding inter-annual increment to the observation anomaly of the previous year, and obtaining the seasonal anomaly of the climate forecasting variable. The method adopts the forecasting factor variables by taking into account the influence of tropical and extra-tropical atmospheric anomalous signals, extracts the most closely coupled coupling modes as the forecasting factors, and predicts the inter-annual increment to avoid the interference of the inter-decadal variation rate, to ensure that the seasonal climate forecasting better and more stable.

Description

technical field [0001] The invention relates to the establishment and application of a seasonal climate statistical prediction model, which can be specifically used in the seasonal climate prediction business of meteorological elements such as precipitation and temperature. Background technique [0002] Accurate climate prediction levels can help the government and people take various preventive measures, minimize the loss of meteorological disasters, and ensure national and social security. Climate prediction is a complex and comprehensive scientific issue, and it is still a difficult problem in the field of international atmospheric science. The theory, technical methods and practical applications of climate prediction are not mature, especially for the research on climate variability and predictability in East Asia and its climate prediction , can not meet the growing needs of all sectors of society. [0003] The current climate prediction technologies mainly include cli...

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Problems solved by technology

At the same time, the anomalies of the predictor variables may largely contain the same interdecadal or trend anomaly signals as the previous year, which makes the statistical relationship of the prediction model likely to have obvious interdecadal variability, resulting in a negative impact on the forecasting effect of the climate prediction model. unstable

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